BURMA RELATED NEWS - AUGUST 31, 2011

The Columbian - Burmese leader will be topic of museum discussion
Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Edith Mirante will discuss “Aung San Suu Kyi and the Strength in Adversity of Burma’s Women” at Thursday’s Museum After Hours event.

The 7 p.m. presentation is in conjunction with the “Road to Equality” exhibit at the Clark County Historical Museum, 1511 Main St.

Mirante will discuss how Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the democracy movement in Myanmar, is using nonviolence to negotiate with the military dictatorship that has ruled the Southeast Asian nation formerly known as Burma since 1962.

Mirante also will speak of some of the other women, including physicians, rebel soldiers, and human rights activists, in Myanmar’s opposition movement that she has met, and describe the situation of its refugees who are settling in the Northwest.

Mirante, author of “The Wind in the Bamboo,” is founder-director of Project Maje, an independent source of information on Myanmar since 1986, and has authored numerous reports on Myanmar, Southeast Asia, human rights and deforestation. One of the few outsiders to travel into Myanmar’s war zones, she has testified before U.S. and international agencies, as well as spoken at national conferences of Amnesty International USA and Rainforest Action Network.
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The Epoch Times - Burma Authorities Send Mixed Messages to Aung San Suu Kyi
By Kremena Krumova
Epoch Times Staff Created: Aug 30, 2011 Last Updated: Aug 30, 2011

Censoring an article by Burma’s democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, which was due to be published in the Rangoon-based People’s Era Journal on Tuesday, might have seemed normal until two weeks ago. The charismatic activist appeared free with the November-elected civilian government recently allowing her to travel and meet the president, foreign diplomats, and her supporters. Restricting her right to freedom of speech again sends a mixed message.

New Delhi-based media, Mizzima News, reported on Aug 30 that the Burmese censorship board, typically referred to as the Press Kempeitai, had told the Rangoon journal to remove several paragraphs of the article or it would not be published. The article concerned Suu Kyi’s personal pilgrimage to Bagan, an ancient temple complex in central Burma (also known as Myanmar). When the journal informed Suu Kyi that her article could not be published in full, she withdrew the article.

It happened shortly after Suu Kyi was allowed to travel outside the capital and meet President Thein Sein and the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tomas Ojea Quintana. At the same time, Burma’s highest officials vowed to Quintana that they would bring about an improvement in human rights, engage in peace talks with armed groups, and open the door for exiles to return.

The meeting between President Thein Sein and Suu Kyi in the military-found capital Yangon (renamed Naypyitaw) was welcomed by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and also by U.S. Sen. John McCain.

“This is a small but very positive step, and I hope it represents the beginning of a real and meaningful process of dialogue and reconciliation between Aung San Suu Kyi and the government in Naypyitaw,” wrote Sen. McCain in a statement.

Aung San Suu Kyi, 66, has spent 15 of the past 21 years under house arrest and was last released from detention on Nov. 13. She remains the country's symbol of democracy and opponent to the military regime that took power in Burma in 1962 with a coup.

Ulterior Motives

Burma is one of the poorest countries in the world, compounded by severe economic sanctions, put in place by Western nations after the ruling military junta crushed a 1988 student uprising. The sanctions will not be lifted until there are concrete reforms, including the release of 2,000 political prisoners.

According to analysts, Suu Kyi is the only person, who can help the former generals avoid isolation, and regain legitimacy in front of the international community.

Professor Robert I. Rotberg, president of the World Peace Foundation, said that Burma’s junta is attempting to cooperate with Suu Kyi by giving her slightly more freedom within Burma in order to moderate Western sanctions. He believes that China, the key influence on Burma, may have urged the junta to loosen up a little, in order to “regularize” its relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the world. China would also gain if Burma were recognized as an ally and not an outcast.

“Suu Kyi obviously still has a broad following, which could worry the junta, but if they can put her on a ‘leash,’ she becomes their operative and is denied agency of her own,” wrote professor Rotberg in an e-mail.

Patricia Taft, senior associate of The Fund for Peace, agrees.

“Suu Kyi has credibility with the West that no other political figure within the government or junta has. If her group reaches an accommodation with the government, it could serve as a reason for Western nations to lift political and economic embargoes,” wrote Taft from Washington, D.C.

Taft explained that according to diplomats, political analysts, and people in Burma, the retired generals, brought back to power after a controversial election last year, may see moves toward reform as the key to their survival. But this is just for show.

"The government is doing this to give the impression that they are making legitimate efforts toward change,” she said.

Still, Priscilla Clapp, senior adviser to Asia Society's 2010 Burma Policy Task Force and former chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Burma, feels more positive about the changes in Burma, although under certain conditions.

“If the government begins significant political prisoner releases and develops a serious negotiation with the remaining insurgent groups; if the new Parliament becomes a mechanism for debating and addressing long-standing political and social problems; and if serious legal reform develops, then I will be very encouraged that things are finally on the right track in Burma,” wrote Clapp in an e-mail.

“Whether [these steps] are real or are simply being staged by the new government to gain international legitimacy … only time will determine the answer to this question.”

No Real Change

Zoya Phan, international coordinator at Burma Campaign U.K. is confident there is no real change in Burma, despite recent positive signs.

“There was no genuine change or improvement, they just took once step back, and then one forward; we were left in the same place. So far the only real change in Burma is that the dictatorship has got better at public relations,” wrote Phan in an e-mail from London.

A sense of skepticism appears to be widespread across Burma, after many years of terror under the stern military rule. Many expect a repeat of history from 2003, when Suu Kyi’s motorcade was attacked by the military and more than 100 of her supporters were killed. At that time she had also just been released from prison and was allowed to travel. That attack resulted in her successive arrest, which continued until November 2010.

Speaking by phone from Bangkok, Toe Zaw Latt, Thailand bureau chief of the Democratic Voice of Burma, said he had been initially excited about Suu Kyi’s release in 2003.

“I almost thought this was the breakthrough. But it didn’t happen. Burmese politics is up and down all the time. [What is happening] is a good sign! But do I have high hopes? No, I am skeptical about it,” he said.

Although the current president is more moderate, Latt says he is still a former military general and is unlikely to influence the hard-liners that still rule Burma behind the scenes.

That, he says is why nobody can predict what their approach toward Suu Kyi might be.

“Burma is ruled by the military, my friend. If she crosses the line, nobody knows what the government will do: they are all former generals with the army behind them,” sighed Latt.
Fear of riots
Indeed, the authorities warned of possible riots before the meetings of Suu Kyi and her supporters, apparently worried of big crowds cheering their icon.

According to Kendall Lawrence, researcher at the Fund for Peace, these warnings could represent a fear of bad press that possible attacks on Suu Kyi might generate; alternatively it could also be a way for Burmese authorities to deny responsibility if something did occur.

Supporters themselves have other fears: “Supporters of Suu Kyi feared that the warning the junta issued before her travels was a threat, and they feared that there would be a planned government attack,” wrote Lawrence in an e-mail from Washington, D.C.

But for Tim Aye-Hardy, director of Burma Global Action Network, these were not just warnings, but rather threats and reminders to Suu Kyi and the people of Burma that the regime will use any means possible to stop her if the public dares to start protests. In a telephone interview from New York, Aye-Hardy recalled the 2003 Dipeyin Massacre, where Suu Kyi was attacked and narrowly escaped.

“We can never underestimate their willingness or capability to initiate riots and chaos, and use violent means to crush them”, he said.

At the same time, Aye-Hardy emphasized that the government may not feel threatened by Suu Kyi’s straightforward speeches and interviews with foreign media because most people inside Burma do not have access to her speeches. Only around 1 percent of the population has access to the Internet and that is severely restricted and censored in Burma.

“The government only allowed domestic journals and newspapers to publish her pictures on the front page about two weeks ago,” he said.
Tin Maung Htoo, executive director of Canadian Friends of Burma, is more positive saying the recent Arab Spring may drive authorities to make changes, whether they want them or not.

“The new regime eventually has no choice but to let opposition play an important role in the political process of Burma, including the state-building and policymaking process,” he wrote in an e-mail. “The military will gradually withdraw from the dominant position, as they feel comfortable and safe from any reprisals and repercussion.”

However, it may take 10 years to see “that kind of situation in the country,” he noted.
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The Huffington Post - Burma's Tortured Prisoners Can't Wait
Bo Kyi, Former Political Prisoner
Posted: 31/8/11 00:00 GMT

The recent meeting between Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein, the new dictator of Burma, has given many in Burma some hope that there may be a chance of political progress at last. The UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Burma also reflected this hope in comments after his visit to Burma at the end of August. But he was also cautious, talking about the potential for change, not actual change, and the fact that serious human rights abuses continue to be committed.

Those of us from Burma will remember similar hopeful statements from UN Envoys in the past, and also that Aung San Suu Kyi meeting the President has happened before, as long ago as 1994,and led nowhere. We know to judge the dictatorship by its actions, not its words.

In Burma, as in other countries ruled by dictatorship, the release of political prisoners has always been seen as a key benchmark for judging progress towards political reform. By that benchmark it's clear that Burma's new dictator, Thein Sein, isn't bringing change to my country. His government denies the 1,995 political prisoners even exist. The international community must now try something new to finally push the dictatorship to go beyond words.

A rare opportunity to try something new is fast approaching, with European Union diplomats currently discussing what will go into the next UN General Assembly resolution on Burma.

It will be the 21st Resolution on Burma, and it always calls for the release of political prisoners, a call which is always ignored.

Yet despite the critical benchmark of the release of political prisoners not being met, some European governments are arguing that before taking any new action in the Resolution, we must still wait and see if there will be change in Burma.

They would not see it like this if they looked at the situation from inside a prison cell, as I have. Every day is a crisis, a living hell. To survive with your mental and physical health intact is literally a life and death struggle.

Political prisoners face what amounts to two kinds of torture. The first is the torture more widely known about, which often takes place during interrogation. This includes beatings, electric shocks, stress positions, and many many other horrific acts.

The other form of torture inflicted upon prisoners is just as serious, but gets little attention.

The Rome Statute, which has legal definitions of crimes against humanity, describes torture as: 'the intentional infliction of severe pain or suffering, whether physical or mental, upon a person in the custody or under the control of the accused.'

Physical and mental suffering is deliberately inflicted upon political prisoners as a matter of government policy. Prisoners suffer from grossly inadequate medical care for small and serious illnesses and from untreated injuries from torture. They are subjected to mental suffering, being transferred to remote prisons away from families whose visits would lift their spirit, and who can bring them decent food and vital medicine. They are forced to live in horrific prison conditions, and threats and actual violence are routine.

On December 8th Buddhist monk U Naymeinda died in prison. His death was due to malnutrition, maltreatment and inadequate medical care. He was the 146th documented political prisoner to die in prison in Burma since 1988. The true number is believed to be much higher.

Ko Min Aung, a member of the National League for Democracy, has been denied urgent medical treatment for heart disease for over 11 months. In addition he is serving a sentence in Kale prison, Sagaing division, 800 miles from his home. Min Ko Naing, a member of the 88 generation students' group, is suffering from heart disease, gout, and is often very dizzy. He is being held in a remote prison, making it very difficult for his family to provide him with essential medicine.

Failure to provide prisoners with the basics, such as adequate food and clothing, appropriate medical treatment, and a cell that is clean, is in breach of a number of international laws and standards.

At the upcoming UN General Assembly this September, the 21st Resolution on Burma will call again for the release of political prisoners, and again, it will be ignored.

So this year, we are asking European governments, which draft the Resolution, to try something new. We want them to include the establishment of a Commission of Inquiry into possible war crimes and crimes against humanity in the resolution. It is only a small step, but it would be a significant one. It is a step already recommended by the UN's own Special Rapporteur on human rights in Burma.

An official UN Inquiry, shining a spotlight onto the abuses taking place against political prisoners in Burma's jails, and the abuses taking place against civilians in ethnic areas, could have a real impact in reducing the scale of some of these abuses. The dictatorship craves international acceptance. It does not want the world to know what they are doing in the remote jungles of Burma, and behind the high prison walls.

A UN Inquiry, which can expose the truth and make recommendations for practical action, won't stop Thein Sein from making reforms if he really wants to. But it could help improve the situation for political prisoners in Burma, something which the past 20 General Assembly resolutions have failed to do. Political prisoners can't afford more wait and see. The EU must act now.
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Asian Correspondent - Burma should review its war-game with ethnic groups
By Zin Linn Aug 31, 2011 9:06PM UTC

A 20-minute armed clash occurred on Tuesday between Burmese Army soldiers and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) at Yinglung Village, near Mungli Hka stream, in Daw-hpum-Yang sub-township, Manmaw (Bhamo) District, in Kachin State, Northern Burma, referring local witnesses Kachin News Group said. Three Burmese soldiers, from the Dawh-pum-Yang-based Infantry Battalion No. 142, were killed in action.

The government soldiers were ambushed by a KIA unit under Brigade 5, said KIA officials.

Also on August 28 and 29, there was a heavy fighting at Lungja Bum Kadawng (Lungja hillside) in N’Mawk (Momauk) Township in Manmaw (Bhamo) Township, in Northern Kachin State, between KIA and government troops. Not less than seven Burma Army soldiers were killed in the battle and more than three injured, quoting local sources Kachin News Group said.

No political dialogue happened in more than 16-year ceasefire time and the KIO was intimidated to remove weapons and transform into the Burmese Army-controlled Border Guard Force (BGF) before the November 7 election in 2010.

The KIO dismissed the BGF plan, saying it cannot accept transformation of its armed wing. KIA officials constantly said the civil war will spread across Kachin and Shan states if the government did not stop fighting upon the KIO.

During the latest series of armed clashes in Kachin state, Burmese armed forces have suffered heavy casualties.

It was biggest defeat of Burmese troops in fighting with the KIA in Kachin State earlier this week, according to KIA officials at the Laiza headquarters in eastern Kachin State.

The August-28/29 skirmishing happened between over 200 government troops, combined with local battalions and the Sagaing-based Light Infantry Division No. 33 and the KIA fighters under Battalion 15 command, KIA officials said.

On 24 June, Union Parliament Speaker Shwe Mann said to parliament representatives in Yangon Region that the battles between the Burmese soldiers and KIA caused fear among the local people as well as in the nation. In that case, Thein Zaw, a member of parliament in Myitkyina, coordinated with authorities concerned and was able to put the situation under control.

He also said, “As a result, the region has restored peace and stability to nearly a full extent. Duty-conscious people and responsible and dutiful representatives of the people are required to act so in their regions. People’s representatives are to take precautionary measures if there is a likelihood of an attempt to harm peace and stability and to try to solve such problems without fail if they occur.”

However, people all over the country do not agree with his words because they have been listening to update news on the armed conflict in Kachin State aired by foreign radio stations – BBC, VOA, RFA and DVB.

Battles are going on constantly and several Burmese soldiers were killed in various clashes with Kachin Independence Army (KIA) troops in northern Kachin State.

The KIA officials said the recent heavy fighting took place when the government armed forces march into the area adjoining locations entrenched by KIA Battalions 1 and 15, under Brigade 3 command. The fighting has intensified near KIA military bases in Kachin State and Northern Shan State after different ceasefire proposals from each side failed to result in an agreement during two-party talks in early August.

Some analysts deem armed conflicts in Burma possibly will become wider since more ethnic armed groups refuse to accept the junta’s new constitution which says Burma Army is the only military institution in the country.

The armed ethnic groups also consider the incoming nominally civilian government which loyal to the 2008 constitution will not let their basic rights or self-determination in accordance with the 1947 Panglong Agreement.

A July-28-open-letter offered by Burma’s pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, strongly called for a ceasefire between the Burmese government, led by President Thein Sein, and ethnic armed groups, including the KIO, Karen National Union (KNU), New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Shan State Army (SSA).

Thus, several ethnic armed groups including the KIA have already decided to defend their basic rights by holding their guns. If the new President Thein Sein government took no notice of addressing this delicate political issue by way of genuine political dialogue, the ongoing civil war may not be put out.
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Asian Correspondent - Breaking the deadlock: Burma at a crossroads
By Zin Linn Aug 30, 2011 10:51PM UTC

Col Sai Htoo, Assistant Secretary General of the Shan State Progress Party / Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), said the Burmese government’s August 18 peace talks call did not reveal any information concerning preliminary programs at all. At least, he said, it should have focused on clearing the political atmosphere before any meaningful talks begin, according to Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N.).

“President Thein Sein should first create an environment conducive to friendly negotiations,” he told SHAN on Tuesday morning. He said it is important to release political prisoners, to start pulling out of troops from the conflict zones and to declare a nationwide ceasefire announcement which will greatly brighten up the atmosphere.

However, at the meeting with Union Chief Justice Tun Tun Oo, Mr Quintana ( UN Human Envoy) put some questions forward on prisoners serving terms for their beliefs, amending existing laws to meet international norms, and formation and functions of the Constitutional Tribunal. The Union chief justice said that in Myanmar (Burma) there is no prisoner serving a term for his belief, and prisoners are all serving their terms for the crimes they have committed. He also added that courts have powers to hand down sentences in the framework of the prescribed laws, and the accused have the right to argue in line with the law under the current 2008 constitution, as said by the New Light of Myanmar newspaper.

Col Sai Htoo believes the 1947 Panglong Agreement that guarantees total autonomy, democracy and human rights for the states should be common ground on which peace talks should be conducted, and not the 2008 constitution “forcibly” drafted and ratified by the previous military junta.

According to Col Sai Htoo, there are reasons with the government is offering the peace talks. His rationales are as follow: (1) There is a conflict between Thein Sein government and the armed forces. (2) There is another conflict inside Thein Sein’s cabinet notably between President Thein Sein and his first-vice president Tin Aung Myint Oo. (3) Disciplinary problems are arising out of the Army’s inability to provide food, clothes and supplies for its troops and their families. (4) The government armed forces have suffered heavy casualties in the war in Kachin, Karen and Shan states. (5) The government hopes to break sanctions imposed by the Western bloc. (6) The government has an ambitious plan to chair the 10 member ASEAN in 2014.

The government’s “invitation to peace talks” says that any armed group wishing to hold negotiations must contact the state government first individually in order to start preliminary discussion, after completion of which, the government will form a team for peace talks.

On the other hand, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) also dismissed the government’s August 18 peace-talk offer. Talks between the KIO and the Burmese government also failed in 1963, 1972, and 1980.

Currently, the KIO declared that it will talk through the ethnic alliance, the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), maintaining the values of the Panglong Agreement.

The SSA has been combating the Burma armed forces to gain self-determination for decades. The Burma Army and SSA reached a ceasefire deal in 1989. However, after 22 year of armistice promise, the ceasefire broken when the Burma Army’s launched an offensive on March 13 this year. The Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) is a member of the newly formed United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) as well and it holds that any meaningful negotiations with Burmese government must be with the UNFC.

If the government failed honoring the political ambition of ethnic people, it will be pointless to end political and civil conflict all over ethnic states. As a result, if the Burmese authorities neglected the opinion of the ethnic rebel-alliance, the critics may say that the current government is not heading toward a democratic system; instead it is challenging to pay no attention to the ethnic people’s self-determination.

Hence, the government has to review its policy on peace-talks vis-à-vis the rebel-alliance’s proposal.
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The Diplomat - Behind Burma’s Rising FDI
By Jared Bissinger
August 31, 2011

If the headlines are any indication, Burma had a banner year for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2010-11. It approved investments of almost $20 billion – more than the previous two decades combined, and even more than Southeast Asia’s latest investment darling, Vietnam, approved the same year. Investment came exclusively from Asia, not a surprise given that sanctions and a strong social stigma effectively prevent Western companies from investing. But while the headlines tell a story that seems wholly positive, the details should give rise to a more cautious optimism.

The first thing to note is that the figure of $20 billion is for approved investments – in other words, investors have gotten the OK, but almost none of these projects have actually invested any money yet. Real investment inflows from last year, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), were a more modest $756 million, on par with Cambodia’s $783 million and not even a tenth of Vietnam’s $8.2 billion. The figure was also largely in line with Burma’s FDI inflows in the last few years.

In addition, Burma’s approved investments came from a very small number of host countries – seven to be precise. The biggest of these, China, has seen its investment in Burma grow markedly. In the 1990s, Chinese investment was a modest $8.3 million, but the country became the largest investor in the late 2000s, with almost $350 million per year in the last two years with data available, FY2007-08 and FY2008-09 (Burma’s fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31). The other major sources of investment were South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong, though most companies investing from Hong Kong are owned by mainlanders. For comparisons sake, Vietnam attracted almost as much approved investment as Burma last year (about $19.5 billion for Vietnam and $20 billion for Burma) but it came from 51 different countries as opposed to seven.

Notably absent from the list of investors was India. As much as New Delhi is vaunted as being China’s strategic rival in Burma, the investment numbers tell a different story – through September 2009, India’s cumulative investment came to just $200,000. While India seems to finally be ramping up its flagship project in the country, the $137 million Kaladan Project, it is, at least in terms of FDI, nowhere near China’s investment in Burma.

So, while approved investment can’t tell us much about FDI in the past, it’s very useful in indicating trends in future investment. If Burma’s approvals from this year are any indication, the country is slated for a number of large, high-profile investments in the extractive and power sector. Of the $20 billion, almost all of it was devoted to projects in these sectors – 58 percent for the extractive industries and 41 percent to power, mostly for a few large dams. The remaining 1 percent was in agriculture and manufacturing. Neither real estate nor hotels and tourism – nor any other sector for that matter – received any approved investments. And while the total amount of approved investments from last year was an aberration, their sectoral distribution wasn’t – over the last decade, 98.7 percent of the FDI went to the extractive and power sectors.

While last year’s heavy concentration of investment in the extractive and power sectors is normal for modern Burma, it’s significantly different from FDI worldwide. Figures from UNCTAD show that last year, only 9.6 percent of FDI was in the extractive sector and only 4.1 percent in power, yet these two sectors practically monopolized Burma’s investment approvals. Manufacturing, which accounts for almost one out of every four dollars of FDI worldwide, was only 0.3 percent of Burma’s totals, while finance, which takes one in five dollars of worldwide investment, received nothing in Burma.

What does this tell us about Burma? Well, the extractive and power sectors (at least the dams) share an important and telling attribute – they’re both ‘globally scarce and geographically concentrated’ resources, according to Prof. Andreea Mihalache-O’Keef. To build a copper mine or a dam, you must go where there is a copper deposit or a suitable river valley. It is, in essence, a seller’s market.

Manufacturers, on the other hand, can invest almost anywhere they’d like, normally choosing a location that offers the lowest costs and greatest benefits – they search for comparative advantage. Countries often compete for manufacturing FDI by trying to offer the most competitive business environment, including reasonable tax and export regimes, efficient infrastructure, and a general ease of doing business. So why aren’t investors in these industries, especially those from Asian countries who don’t have investment sanctions, investing in Burma?

The answer is that Burma isn’t a competitive destination for most kinds of FDI. There are a number of problems, including poor infrastructure, high port costs, intermittent power supplies, currency convertibility issues, and a number of political obstacles to doing business. These challenges are only complicated by the recent and significant appreciation of the kyat, which has gone from around 1000k/USD to less than 700k/USD in the last year, exacerbating an already tough investment climate.

It’s fairly unlikely, then, that investment sanctions by Western countries have significantly hindered Burma’s economic development. Asian countries don’t restrict investment in Burma, yet there are almost no investments from these countries in manufacturing, real estate, or any other sector that is internationally competitive. Instead, investors in these sectors look elsewhere in Southeast Asia, to places like Vietnam, and only venture to Burma for resources and dams. There’s no reason that Western investors would act differently, and, therefore, even without investment sanctions, it’s unlikely that many Western companies would choose to do business there.

Yet the new government gives rise to cautious optimism, with its acknowledgement of economic distresses and very real talk of reforms. With improved accountability and governance, there’s at least the chance that some of the revenue from the looming resource boom will be used for much needed infrastructure and other public investments. These investments could pay important dividends if they improve the country’s ability to attract other types of FDI, especially in labour intensive industries. But a long history of the ‘resource curse’ elsewhere has shown that it may be better to be cautious than optimistic about Burma’s chances of using new resource revenues to promote real economic development.

Jared Bissinger is a PhD candidate at Macquarie University and former fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research
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The Nation - Burma must face reality on currency regime
By Supalak Ganjanakhundee
Published on August 31, 2011

Burmese President Thein Sein took a brave step to move his country forward by admitting recently that the kyat was in crisis and the country's currency-exchange regime - the core of its economic problems for decades - badly needed reform and restructure.

Burma has multiple currency-exchange systems in its one economy. The authorities have fixed the official rate at 6 kyat per US dollar, but this does not reflect the real economic situation and it is impractical for business.

The authorities also created foreign-exchange certificates (FEC), which initially were very close to the real market rate. Foreign visitors were forced to turn their hard currency into FECs and could transfer the certificates into kyat. Meanwhile the exchange rate on the black market was the real source of economic life.

China used to have this kind of currency-exchange system but rushed to terminate FECs in the late 1990s when their value was close to the market rate of the yuan. However, Burma has had no chance to do so, as its economy has never been healthy enough.

The authorities mulled adjusting the currency-exchange regime again this year when the real value of the kyat was about to pose troubles for the economy. The market rate of the kyat is now sitting at 750 per US dollar, appreciating 25 per cent from 1,000 kyat per dollar last year.

Thein Sein admitted for the first time during a workshop with economic experts in Naypyidaw on August 17 that the kyat had dealt a blow to some exports.

"In consequence, local demand for goods is falling, and it has affected producers, especially farmers, who depend on exporting agricultural produce. So ways and means are being sought to ease the crises those farmers are facing," the president was quoted as saying in the state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper.

The Burmese government stepped up measures to ease economic restrictions on tackling the problem. The measures included reduction of the export tax from 8 to 5 per cent and granted tax exemption for exported farm products.

Experts say the causes of appreciation of the kyat are the weak dollar in the world market and mismanagement of Burma's currency-exchange system.

The president's chief economic adviser U Myint, who released an analysis paper at an economic workshop in Naypyidaw recently, said there were four factors making the kyat stronger.

First, Burma relies too much on exports of natural gas. Second, it produced goods and services that are not traded on the world market.

Third, the country exports only gas while importing oil. Fourth, manufacturing and agriculture are lagging, while capital and labour forces are moving to non-trade sectors such as construction.

U Myint saw a good opportunity for the authorities to push reform of the exchange-rate regime to establish a new system that could meet international standards. The reformed currency system would provide an effective tool for the authorities to adjust macroeconomic management, he said.

U Myint recommended a number of measures to tackle the problem, which President Thein Sein is likely to agree with. The chief adviser suggested that the authorities unify the multi-rate currency-exchange system into one and liberalise economic restrictions.

To be more precise, the measures include reducing export taxes, removal of foreign trade restrictions, buying US dollars in the domestic market, reduction of interest rates to adjust the currency, requesting help from the International Monetary Fund, enforcing transparency and accountability in economic management, and providing sufficient information on the economy to the public.

To achieve these aims, Thein Sein needs a lot of political will and courage to move his country towards reform, since economic management has been in the military's hands for a long time. Some generals treat the economy as if it were their own property.
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BURMA
The Nation - Seize opportunities to regain Burma
By Nalin Viboonchart
Published on September 1, 2011

China has become Burma's biggest business partner in terms of trading value, replacing Thailand, and is likely to benefit from the open-market policy the most, said Burmese and Thai businesspeople as well as the Thai Board of Investment (BoI).

Thai investors should penetrate potential markets such as Burma more, while the government must facilitate Thai companies wishing to expand their business not only in Burma but in other countries, including India and China, a seminar heard.

Vasana Mututanont, director of the BoI's International Affairs Bureau, said during the seminar titled "Thai Investors Move Forward in India and Burma" that the Kingdom had been Burma's largest business partner from 1988 to 2008, but it had lost this position to China over the past few years. China is expanding aggressively into Burma and now markets many consumer products there.

"Thai investors and the government cannot ignore Burma and should think about playing a greater role in the country," she said. "The government of Burma has set a target to transform it from an agricultural-oriented to an industrial country by 2030. It needs more investment and trade. Thailand has an opportunity from this policy."

The seminar was held by the Office of Industrial Economics and the Centre for International Trade Studies of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce to disclose research on the opportunities for Thai enterprises to invest in India and Burma.

Moe Myint Kyaw, president of the Myanmar Fishery Products Processors and Exporters Association, said Burma imported US$4.53 billion (Bt136 billion) worth of goods last year, with China, Thailand and Singapore the top three suppliers, in that order. China's trade value was the largest at about $9.5 billion, followed by Thailand with a little bit lower value.
He said Thai businesspeople had many opportunities to invest in various sectors in Burma, particularly fishery, agriculture, food, wood, cement and infrastructure. However, Thai investors do not benefit as much as they could. Collaboration between the two countries is needed.

"The two governments should have a good relationship. I think the relationship today is so far so good.??? Good cooperation will prevent investors conducting hit-and-run-style business in Burma," he said.

Thai businesses should think beyond how to sell their products in the Burmese market and plan to invest there, he said. Burma has limitations for exporting goods to other markets, lacking facilities such as ports. It needs Thailand as an export centre, as the cost may be lower than exporting directly from Burma. Hence Thai companies could use raw materials from Burma for production, while Burmese firms could undertake reprocessing and packaging in Thailand and use this country as their distribution centre.

Vichai Kemtongkum, managing director of Oriental Unique, a Thai trading company that has done business in Burma since 1994, said Thailand had lost market share in the neighbouring country to China even though it should have a trade value of many billions of baht with Burma. One obstacle may be concern about the security and stability of doing business with Burmese investors.

"As far as I'm concerned, Burma is safer than Thailand. Burmese investors are reliable. I have done business in Burma for many years and never experienced cheating by Burmese partners," he said.

Surasak Chuasuknothip, deputy director-general of the Foreign Ministry's Department of International Economic Affairs, said India needed to invest more than $1 trillion in infrastructure, and there was an opportunity for Thai contractors to take part in the investment.
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Sep 1, 2011
Asia Times Online - Myanmar tiger turns economic chameleon
By Mair Dubois

A recent outpouring of common sense from Myanmar's ruling elite, hard on the heels of a transition to nominally civilian government and release of Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, creates the disconcerting impression of a tiger changing its spots.

Among glimpses of a mutating government unusually acknowledging realities: President Thein Sein this month met Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the political opposition released late last year after 15 years of house arrest; on August 27, a general amnesty for political prisoners was proposed in parliament (one of the key moves required if United States sanctions are to be eased); Thein Sein earlier urged citizens who had fled abroad to return home and work for the country's development.

One incentive for folks to return would be signs of a rational economy. A unified exchange rate would be big step towards that goal - at a practical level it would reduce the need for honest people to play around in the black market - and may be the next step. A flurry of announcements this month suggests some urgency.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team is due in the country to discuss the issue in October, and the government said on August 12 it would abolish Foreign Exchange Certificates, official bits of paper valued between the official and the much lower black market exchange rates.

The official exchange rate, used in international dealings, has held at around 6 kyat to the US dollar since 1975. The black market rate better reflects internal realities. In January 2010, just over 1,000 kyat were required to buy one dollar on the black market, the currency having weakened over years of inept government and inflation. That decline has drastically changed direction, to under 700 kyat this year. The price of a dollar last week tumbled to 680 kyat, the India-based Mizzima web site, which tracks the currency, reported on August 23.

The currency's u-turn hurts exporters, small businesses that store dollars as a safe haven, and farmers. Thein Sein, since April the country's first at least nominally civilian head of government in 50 years, acknowledged on August 17 that the strengthening local currency is hurting the economy. His proposed solutions include cutting or ending export taxes on commodities including rice and other grains. Some cuts have already been made. In July, the government promised loans and price guarantees for farmers, who still dominate the economy.

Culprits for the kyat's strength are varied, from increased illegal drug production and export, strong demand, notably from China, for natural resources such as jade, coal and timber - much of it smuggled - and official foreign cash inflows linked to a swathe of infrastructure and other projects.

Foreign direct investment in the oil and gas sector alone jumped to US$9.81 billion in the five months to August 2010 from $278.6 million in the preceding financial year, Xinhua reported in January. Last November, Thailand's Ital-Thai signed an $8.6 billion deal to build a deep-sea port and industrial estate in the south.

Privatization of state assets since early last year has also sucked up kyat from the economy, as have to some extent high bank deposit interest rates at around 17% and government bond sales. Skeptics suggest speculators are also playing a hand, and when these bow out of the market, the kyat will plummet.

Maintaining official and unofficial rates in the face of domestic inflation in itself tends to cause an appreciation of the real rate. [1] Inflation is running at around 16%, according to an Economist Intelligence Unit estimate, on a par with the savings rate.

Thein Sein said that beyond export tax cuts additional "ways and means" are being sought "to ease the crises". Unifying the exchange rate appears to be one of these.

The United States, which imposes severe sanctions on Myanmar over its human-rights record and is the IMF's biggest funder, said this month that "if they want IMF help, they're going to have to live by IMF restrictions and rules". Usefully, Zhu Min, formerly of the People's Bank of China, was appointed one of the IMF's three deputy managing directors in July and could have a say in what those conditions might be. Among other functions, his job is "strengthening the fund's understanding of Asia".

The Myanmar government can, anyway, look to China directly for advice and assistance. It is Myanmar's largest backer, with investment totaling $12.3 billion last year, according to Xinhua. Thein Sein, during his first state visit after assuming office, agreed in May with Chinese President Hu Jintao to upgrade relations to a "strategic partnership" and Hu "called on both sides to work out a program so economic cooperation between the two countries could be better planned".

Helping towards that goal, China gave a $780 million line of credit to Myanmar - on top of a $4.2 billion, 30-year, interest-free loan agreed last September, with no obviously unpleasant strings attached.

IMF number crunchers have already indicated a possible unified rate - about 450 kyat to the dollar, according to a 2008 working paper. A seafood exporter quoted this month by the Irrawaddy web site would prefer an adjustment to 900-1,000 kyat to the dollar.

The government's desire to align exchange rates goes beyond appeasing influential exporters and marginally benefiting the 30% of the population who live below the poverty line. A change would line its own pocket.

Government revenues would increase if income from gas exports, for example, were converted at the market rate, according to the most recent country report from the Asia Development Bank. "Unifying the multiple exchange rates would create additional fiscal resources, as would broadening the tax base," the bank says.

The IMF's 2008 paper says the present set-up is likely to underestimate the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Its recommended rate would increase the size of nominal GDP by as much as 10-12%. The total efficiency loss caused by the multiple exchange rates at the time of the study was put at 14-17% of GDP.

U Myint, a government economic adviser, laid out the argument for exchange rate unification to a workshop held in Myanmar's capital between August 19 and 21 and attended by Aung San Suu Kyi. [2] After noting that the paper had already been presented in late June "to the high authorities of Myanmar", he underlined that accepting IMF technical assistance "does not mean the country is under any obligation to abide by what the IMF recommends".

However, news that Myanmar is cooperating with the IMF in resolving the kyat exchange rate issue "will add credibility to the efforts currently underway to deal with this problem".

Similar cynicism peppered the report. Once normalcy is restored in the exchange market, U Myint said, (i) tax reforms can be carried out; (ii) demand for dollars can be increased by liberalizing the export and import licensing requirements and bring down the kyat dollar exchange rate; (iii) the government could also buy dollars in the domestic market to build up its exchange reserves - and also request [sic] some "key players" in the country to do the same.

U Myint's recipe for progress included a hint at how "key players" could be encouraged to toe the line: "With large foreign exchange inflows causing rate appreciation, it may be prudent to reduce the frequency of holding gem and jade emporiums," his paper advised "the high authorities".

Two of this year's sales, the most recent in July, pulled in almost $5 billion between them. That would upset the likes of Tay Za, sometimes named as Myanmar's richest man and a keen jade miner, and similarly wealthy Ne Win Tun, head of Ruby Dragon Jade & Gems.

Myint described how the government could profit by buying dollars at 800 kyat to the dollar, and watch it decline thanks to its intervention to 900 kyat. "The government stands to benefit 100 kyat per dollar. ... Suppose it feels a rate between 900 kyat and 1,000 kyat is a good rate to stabilize the exchange rate, it can then use its exchange reserve to intervene (buy and sell dollars) in the market to hold the exchange rate steady at this rate within a narrow band of a few percentage points."

So pundits anticipating a free-floating exchange rate and end to the need for a black market rate may be disappointed. A tightly controlled rate, but more flexible than the present set-up, appears the more likely possibility - and along the lines of China's crawling appreciation of the yuan. At the heart of it, market manipulation that benefits the government.

But some change is necessary if the government (military-backed or otherwise) is to keep its share of the pie. A fixed official rate benefits an isolationist government (not necessarily the country as a whole) that wants to keep control of the economy, even if a declining black market rate indicates growing social poverty - which was clearly not a concern of the military that ruled Myanmar for the past five decades.

The arguments for an out-of-kilter fixed rate falter when government changes from an inflexible military to a placating civilian outfit, and the economy becomes more open to private business. The direct economic and opportunity costs to the elite of an unrealistic fixed rate become too high.

Even so, some generals doubtless see power slipping from their grasp. Others recognize the impact on their own troops of the country's growing wealth gap. Since February, a string of top officers have been sacked, allegedly for corruption offenses, and more may follow, with investigations focusing "on certain military officers because they had been outspoken in calling for better conditions for soldier," the Irrawaddy web site reported on August 9.

Among those getting their marching orders, inspector and auditor-general Major-General Kyaw Phyo and Major-General Khin Zaw Oo, chairman of the military's Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings.

Military pay levels are certainly dismal and encourage corruption. A brigadier general's is 300,000 kyat a month, or around $300, according to the Mizzima web site. At the bottom end of the scale, foot soldiers rely on a pittance, and have to plunder villages for their daily rations or reportedly grub for bamboo shoots (they can make a tolerable soup) when on jungle patrols.

In contrast, the likes of Tay Za, head of Htoo Group of companies, is reckoned to be a billionaire - in dollar terms. Tun Myint Naing (aka Steven Law) - who was among those who accompanied Thein Sein to China in May - may now be even richer.

Some commentators say the arrests indicate a tussle between reformists and revanchists - with return of a military government one possible end point. But the military has already let the genie out of the bottle - it will not be easy to put it back in. Nor would a coup please Myanmar's most influential trade partner and political supporter, China.

Besides, as the IMF paper pointed out, a unified exchange rate makes for a bigger cake that will necessitate no reduction in the military budget. It will mean more cash is available for more and better armament and supplies - whether that be proper food rations for the troops bumping off border rebels or the big stuff, like atom bombs and fancy missiles.

Both the army and the new government have clearly been advised accordingly. Myanmar is not a tiger changing its spots - perhaps just a chameleon changing its colors in line with a more profitable economic environment.

Notes
1. See Branson and de Macedo, Trade and Exchange Rate Policies. Smugglers: the invisible hand?

2. Yangon economics professor Tin Soe made similar arguments in 2004. See Economic Transition : Constraints and Related Issues Affecting the Agriculture Sector, Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol 1, No 2. December 2004.

Mair Dubois is an Asia-based correspondent.
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Sep 1, 2011
Asia Times Online - Slippery path to legitimacy
By Brian McCartan

CHIANG MAI - Myanmar's new civilian government is making big efforts to show its legitimacy as a democratic regime. With little concrete action to back up government pronouncements, questions remain whether the world is simply seeing a repeat of the smoke and mirrors practiced by the military junta it has supposedly replaced.

The most notable development of recent weeks was the August 19 meeting between opposition leader and Nobel laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi, and Myanmar president Thein Sein. The former general was the last prime minister under the military dictatorship that ruled the country since 1962.

The one-hour meeting took place during Aung San Suu Kyi's first visit to the new capital at Naypyidaw where she also attended a government workshop on economic development. Although few details have emerged from the meeting, Aung San Suu Kyi told reporters afterward she was "happy and satisfied" with the discussion and hoped to meet with the president again. On August 24, she told reporters she believed Thein Sein wants "real positive change".

Although Aung San Suu Kyi has been able to meet with government officials in the past, the meeting with Thein Sein was a clear attempt by the government to show it to establish a high-level dialogue with the democracy leader. The country's dictator, Senior General Than Shwe, had refused in the past to meet her. The meeting followed two previous discussions with Labor Minister and former general Aung Kyi.

Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to Naypyidaw was her second journey upcountry since being released from house arrest in November 2010. Her detention was a direct result of the large crowds she was able to draw during a tour of upper Myanmar in 2003 that culminated in an attack on her caravan by thugs believed to be controlled by the military regime at Depayin in Sagaing division.

This marks a change from previously stricter government attitudes. In June, Aung San Suu Kyi was warned to refrain from involvement in politics and warnings that trips up country could result in chaos and riots, a warning that large crowds or demonstrations may result in a military crackdown.

She has also been able to release two "open letters" critical of government policy. The first presented her views on controversial dam projects and the second called for a nationwide ceasefire with the country's ethnic groups to be followed by discussions on peace and national reconciliation.

Aung San Suu Kyi was barred from participating in the election and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), was ordered disbanded after failing to register. The NLD's opposition to the 2008 constitution and election rules remains a major stumbling block between the government and what would be Myanmar's strongest opposition party.

Overtures and an apparent softening towards Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD were periodically used by Myanmar's military rulers in the past, often to avert international criticism. The generals, however, viewed her widespread popularity as a dangerous influence. Each time, the pro-democracy icon was put back under lengthy periods of house arrest during which she was often cut off from contacts outside the country. The Depayin crackdown on her and her party resulted in the deaths of some 70 of her supporters.

Myanmar's new civilian government, while composed of many of the same members of the regime that repeatedly put Aung San Suu Kyi under arrest and jailed her supporters, has broadened its seeming magnanimity beyond a narrow focus on a struggle between her and the generals. Thein Sein has called for both a return of exiles and peace talks with the various ethnic groups engaged in armed struggle against Naypyidaw.

Thein Sien announced during a speech to local businessmen on August 17 in Naypyidaw that the government would allow exiles to return home and would consider leniency towards that that had committed crimes other than murder. He also indicated the government is willing to work with the exiles to develop the country.

The announcement, however, has received a cautious response in exile communities. Many want to see more formal legal guarantees, especially concerning political offenses, before accepting the offer. Unclear as well is the status of the over 100,000 refugees along the Thai-Myanmar border and those exiles who have taken up arms against the regime and could be prosecuted for murder.

An August 18 peace overture by Thein Sein to armed groups representing several of the countries minority groups 's was met with similar skepticism. The groups have objected to the stipulation that negotiations must be conducted through state and division governments first before proceeding to the national level.

Ethnic leaders feel that as representatives of their peoples they deserve to negotiate on a national level, especially since several of the groups, such as the Karen National Union (KNU) and Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), operate across two or more states and divisions.

Ethnic groups also object to being asked to negotiate separately with the government. Instead, they wish to negotiate as a bloc, through the recently formed United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC). The group is an alliance of the KNU, KIO, Shan State Progressive Party, Chin National Front, New Mon State Party and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP). The UNFC has insisted any negotiations must take place between the government and the UNCF.

A core element of current ethnic demands for negotiations with the government is for any discussions to be conducted within the framework of the 1947 Panglong agreement. The agreement which was made with Myanmar's independence hero, General Aung San, was aimed at establishing a federal system and guaranteeing ethnic minority rights. Its suspension in the wake of the 1962 coup installing military rule was a major reason for ethnic groups such as the Kachin and Shan to take up armed struggle. The current government insists any discussion should be conducted within the framework of the 2008 constitution.

Other reformist activity has taken place in the newly formed parliament which is currently in its second session. During a speech to mark the opening of the second session, Thein Sein said the government is working to ease tensions with opposition parties that "still do not accept the country's constitution", a veiled reference to the NLD. He also said the government is seeking improved relations with ethnic minorities, noting that border development was important for security.

Within parliament, MPs have been able to criticize government policies and put forward motions that may have gotten them arrested in years past. Shan State MP Sai Maung Tin sent a report at the end of July documenting army abuses and urging the formation of a peace commission to Thein Sein and both vice presidents, and cabinet ministers. During the second session, Health Minister Dr Pe Thet Khin gave a speech critical of budget allocations for health.

While problems remain in parliament over procedural matters, MPs are able to raise and debate issues based on real concerns rather than the simple rubber stamping of government decisions. Speaker of the Lower House and former general and key junta leader, Thura Shwe Mann, in a speech to parliament declared it the most responsible institution for promoting democracy and human rights and urged the adoption of legislation to protect the nation and its citizens. He also called on MPs to listen to the voices of the people and take strong steps based on past lessons.

Most recently, on August 27, several members of parliament, including from the bloc of military MPs that makes up 25% of parliament, raised the issue of a sweeping prisoner amnesty in the Lower House. The issue was reportedly forwarded for more discussion to the National Defense and Security Council, a body headed by Thein Sein. The military MPs may be seeking freedom for military officers, many who are former intelligence officials, imprisoned during a 2004 purge that also resulted in the house arrest of former regime Number 3 and military intelligence chief and prime minister, Khin Nyunt.

The issue of some 2,100 political prisoners is key for continued rapprochement between the government and Aung San Suu Kyi as well as improved relations with the West, particularly the United States. During a recently concluded visit by UN Human Rights Rapporteur for Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana, government officials told the UN envoy they feared the release of prisoners would result in social unrest. The state-run New Light of Myanmar quoted Upper House Speaker Khin Aung Myint as telling Quintana, "Political prisoners will be released when they are certain not to disrupt the nation's peace and stability."

At the same time, other government officials continued the regime's traditional obfuscation of the issue. An August 26 article in the New Light of Myanmar quoted Chief Justice Tun Tun Oo as saying, "There are no prisoners serving a sentence for their beliefs; prisoners are all serving their terms for crimes they have committed." And Home Minister, Lieutenant General (retired) Ko Ko, disputed Quintana's numbers for political prisoners, claiming many were convicted of drug trafficking, murder, bombings, insurgency and other crimes.

Quintana's five-day visit was his first in 18 months and coincides with calls by activists for a United Nations commission of inquiry into government complicity in human rights violations, a movement Quintana started after asking for an inquiry by the UN Commission for Human Rights. After meeting with government ministers as well as Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, Quintana summed up his trip saying that despite recent steps toward rapprochement with the opposition, human rights challenges remain.

Indeed, the government may display more openness to Aung San Suu Kyi and allow more open debate of issues in parliament, but simple pronouncements cannot erase the distrust of almost 50 years of military misrule. Many of the generals who made up the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) now hold key positions in the cabinet.

In addition, holding 25% of seats in parliament, other former military officers hold senior positions in ministries and make up a large portion of the majority Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The shadow of former military supremo Senior General Than Shwe still darkens Myanmar's democratic transition and many analyst expect him to take a behind-the-scenes role in the running of the country in a similar manner to China's Deng Xiaoping or Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew.

A power struggle between hardline former military officers headed by Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo and perceived moderates led by Thein Sein is believed to have stymied political and economic reform. Thein Sein and like-minded MPs are keen to show they are doing something good for the country and reinforce the idea that civilians and not the military are in control of the government.

Tin Aung Myint Oo's loyalists are wary of democratic rule and its potential for dissent. Some analysts, however, believe this rivalry was created by design by Than Shwe in order for no one leader to gain enough power to challenge him in his semi-retirement.

Cynical observers note that Myanmar's leaders have opened up before only to tighten up again once international pressure is off. There is some reason to believe that current moves are aimed at reducing opposition to Myanmar's desire to gain the chair of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2014. Myanmar was denied the chairmanship in 2006 over Western pressure on ASEAN over the country's human rights record. The regional grouping is to make a decision on the issue in coming months.

Regardless of the reasons behind reform or hardline efforts to block it, there has certainly been an unprecedented openness in recent weeks. The government, encumbered as it is with former junta members and military men, cannot be expected to make a rapid shift to a liberal and open democracy.

Still, simple pronouncements and debates in parliament, unless translated to policies and action, will not give the government the democratic legitimacy it seems to crave. To be taken seriously by the population and the international community there must be concrete action.

Talks with Aung San Suu Kyi need to be followed up with inclusion of the NLD into national reconciliation efforts and the freedom to influence policy, even if as an outsider until the next elections. Unless the government can reign in the army in the border areas and restore peace on equitable terms with the ethnic groups, it is likely the civil war will continue and may even broaden.

Invitations to exiles to return home is a good step, if legal guarantees are extended, but without the rehabilitation of political prisoners in Myanmar's prisons, it will remain a largely empty gesture. This is a tall order, but without these measure, elements such as anti-corruption drives and economic reforms will not be enough to prove the government's legitimacy.

Concrete moves towards reform may put the government on a path that will be difficult to reverse without reverting to direct military rule and a return to pariah status. But then, Myanmar's military rulers have never shown a need to rely on logical thinking, instead making decisions based more on preservation of their power. This is now compounded by the interest of many generals to maintain their grip on very lucrative business empires.

Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached at brianpm@comcast.net.
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Thailand's 40 Richest
Forbes - The Reluctant Builder
Simon Montlake, 08.30.11, 06:00 PM EDT
Forbes Asia Magazine dated September 12, 2011
Premchai Karnasuta has a hankering for mines but can't pass up a long-sought development in Burma.

Premchai Karnasuta stands on the grass-lined balcony of his 40th-floor office, surveying the Bangkok skyline as the sun sets. "We're building that one," he says, pointing to a hulking apartment complex. "And that one," he adds, indicating another rising block. He pauses and waves a dismissive hand at the site. "So ugly," he says.

Karnasuta may be the master builder of Thailand, where his family-controlled Italian-Thai Development (ITD) ranks as the construction leader. It built the passenger terminal at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi International Airport, the city's elevated skytrain and its first subway line. The company has contracts for major public works in Thailand, India, Taiwan and Vietnam.

But what really gets the 57-year-old president juiced are mining concessions in Africa, where he is digging for gold, nickel and uranium. When he met FORBES ASIA he had just spent a week in Tanzania. Karnasuta's idea of fun is sloshing through mud in Madagascar. "I love going around the world looking for minerals," he says. ITD is also developing mines in Thailand and Laos.

Part of the appeal is being the principal, not the contractor. This extends beyond mining rights and into capitalintensive infrastructure projects where ITD can take the lead role. One such project is in Burma.

Last November ITD signed a 75-year lease with the Burmese government to build a deep-sea port and industrial estate on a 100-square-mile Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Dawei, with fast road and rail links to Bangkok. The project could stabilize both ITD's income stream and the Burmese economy, which is heavily geared toward volatile commodity exports. It also packs a geopolitical punch: Burma hopes to offset its dependence on China, which is building its own deep-sea port in western Burma, while Thailand gains access to a strategic Indian Ocean port.

ITD plans to start construction early next year and estimates the initial infrastructure rollout at $4 billion. The company is seeking investors in its Burma subsidiary that holds the SEZ concession, but Karnasuta insists on ITD retaining a 51% stake. "We want to be the majority until the project is developed. We have to be someone who leads the project," he says.
Given ITD's high leverage, that sounds like a stretch. Last year the company eked out a $10 million profit after two years of heavy losses, but this was on reduced turnover of $1.3 billion and operating margins of less than 5%. Minus asset sales worth $69 million, ITD would have ended in the red again. Even with these divestments, it still has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3, much higher than its industry peers.

This poses a challenge to Siam Commercial Bank, ITD's financial advisor, which is trying to put together an international consortium for Dawei. U.S. and European sanctions on Burma and the political impossibility of securing World Bank loans put the onus on securing Asian public and private investors, who will need assurances that ITD, as concessionaire, isn't tapped out. "For it to work ITD needs to show its [capital] strength," says Sopon Asawanuchit, executive vice president for Siam Commercial.

In May Thailand's TRIS Rating downgraded ITD's local-currency bonds, saying operating performance had been weaker than expected and citing high development costs on large projects. "The downgrade also reflects the company's relatively high leverage due mainly to its aggressive investment outlays over the past several years," it said.

Karnasuta is still a wealthy man: He ranks No. 35 on the Thai Rich List with $240 million. His younger sister, Nijaporn Charanachitta, a director of ITD and chairman of the Oriental Hotel, places at No. 31 with $260 million ITD's shares, and Karnasuta's wealth, got a boost after the opposition Pheu Thai party won a landslide victory in the July 3 elections. ITD shares rose the next day by 30% on expectations that the new government will invest more in infrastructure. But investors simultaneously dumped shares in Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction, the second biggest construction company, which built Bangkok's new airport train link.

Why the divergence? Public contracting in Thailand, as elsewhere, runs on political patronage. Sino-Thai had the inside track under former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who appointed Chavarat Charnvirakul, Sino- Thai's founding patriarch, as interior minister under a power-sharing coalition. Thailand's newly elected premier, Yingluck Shinawatra, is the younger sister of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, who kept ITD well fed during his fiveyear rule until a military coup in 2006. He now lives in exile in Dubai.

Karnasuta describes Thaksin as a "good man" but denies that they're as close as people say. "They think I'm friends with Thaksin. I'm a friend of everybody. But that's the perception," he tells us. Does he ever see Thaksin in Dubai? That's a "sensitive issue," he says, breaking into laughter. Yet Karnasuta later boasts that he advised Thaksin on doing business in Africa, where Thaksin has invested in gold mines.

Karnasuta never expected to run the family firm. He's the second son of Chaijudh Karnasuta, a physician, who founded the company in 1958 with Giorgio Berlingieri, an Italian naval architect and Asia hand who lived in Hanoi, where he ran a dredging firm. Their first job was salvaging boats from Bangkok's Chao Praya River, but they soon diversified into trading, construction and tourism. Berlingieri died in 1981, ending ITD's Italian connection, though not the name.

By this time Premchai Karnasuta had returned to Thailand with an M.B.A. from the University of Southern California and an M.S. in mining engineering from Colorado School of Mines. He hankered for the outdoor life of a miner, but the death of his elder brother pulled him back to head office, and he took over as president in 1986. ITD went public in 1994, before the Asian financial crisis led to a debt restructuring that diluted the family's ownership to 41%. Chaijudh Karnasuta died in 2004 and worked until his last day as chairman, according to Karnasuta, whose son, the eldest of three children, is now a director of ITD, continuing the line.

Since the restructuring ITD has expanded briskly overseas. It has a listed Indian joint venture, ITD Cementation, that's building roads and airports in several cities. In Bangladesh ITD recently signed a 25-year concession to develop an elevated highway in Dhaka. International business last year accounted for 32% of project backlog but a much higher proportion of new business this year. In the first four months of 2011 new orders rose to $2.5 billion, a fivefold increase on the same period last year.

He's building another subway line in Bangkok and bidding on a rail tender but knows that you can't trust campaign promises about new infrastructure. "We're ready to take on these projects. But in the past the government has always said that, but it doesn't come as quick as they say. We can't rely on Thailand alone," he says.

Karnasuta rarely gives interviews, and has a reputation for ignoring investors and analysts. "We're all in the dark when it comes to ITD," says an equity analyst. A complex conglomerate structure, with 45 subsidiaries and joint ventures, adds to the challenge. If ITD cracks open its doors only when it needs to raise money, Dawei may be one such occasion. The company issued over $100 million in local-currency bonds in May to roll over existing paper.

Economic sanctions and capital markets aren't the only obstacle to Dawei's completion. Ethnic Karen rebels operate in the borderlands between Thailand and Burma and have threatened to disrupt road construction. Burma's new semicivilian government, which took power in April, is beset with infighting even as a rapid deregulation proceeds.

Banker Asawanuchit says investors are waiting for clarification on how the SEZ will operate. "There are still some challenges in terms of rules and regulations from the Myanmar side," he says.

Try this one: Dawei's SEZ status allows international investors to import and export capital. But Burma's Banking Law says foreign banks can't operate outside Rangoon. It will be up to Karnasuta to square that circle and others so that companies will commit to building the power station, steel mill and petrochemical plants envisaged by ITD.

Karnasuta says Thai and Japanese companies have expressed interest in an industrial complex only 180 miles from Bangkok that faces far fewer land and environmental constraints than its Thai equivalents. In 2008 residents in Map Ta Phut, Thailand's largest petrochemical node, obtained a court objection, later lifted, on operators after studies showed cancer clusters. Dawei SEZ is ten times as large as Map Ta Phut and is on a sparsely populated coastline.

Karnasuta had his eye on the site in the late 1990s until the Asian financial crisis hit. When the project came back on track he signed a framework agreement last November, just days away from a landmark election won by a promilitary party. ITD has built dams and airports in Burma but nothing on the scale of Dawei, so there's a lot riding on Karnasuta's ability to attract official financing, particularly from Japan.

If he can pull it off and spend his precious capital wisely, investors in ITD may look more kindly on a reclusive president. "Next year will be a new, good cycle for our company," he says.
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High Court rules Australia cannot send asylum seekers to Malaysia
By the CNN Wire Staff
August 31, 2011 3:02 a.m. EDT
The prime ministers of the two countries had announced the agreement in May
They said it was aimed at reducing human smuggling and illegal migration
The court says Malaysia is not a signatory to the Refugee Convention
It also says the immigration ministry does not have legal power

(CNN) -- The High Court in Australia ruled Wednesday that the country cannot send asylum seekers to Malaysia.

The prime ministers of both countries had announced the agreement in May, saying it was aimed at reducing human smuggling and illegal migration to Australia.

Under the deal struck at the time, the next 800 asylum seekers who arrived in Australia illegally would be transferred to Malaysia for refugee status determination. In exchange, over the next four years, Australia would take in 4,000 refugees who are already residing in Malaysia.

Sixteen asylum seekers who were to become the first to be flown from the Australian territory of Christmas Island to Malaysia then filed suit.

Among the reasons the court cited Wednesday: Malaysia, unlike Australia, is not a signatory to the 1951 U.N. Refugee Convention.

The court said the country to which asylum seekers can be taken for processing has to be "legally bound by international law or its own domestic law."

It has to have proper procedures in place to assess an asylum seeker's need for protection, among other factors.

The court also said that Australia's immigration ministry did not have legal power to remove asylum seekers whose refugee claims have not been determined.

Thousands of refugees seek asylum in Australia each year, according to the Refugee Council of Australia, an umbrella organization for groups that support refugees.

Most of them come from Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Iraq, Iran and Burma, and travel through Malaysia -- a transit point for many refugees headed for Australia.

The May agreement was an attempt to remove the incentive to sneak into Australia, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said at the time.

"Under this arrangement, if someone seeks to come to Australia then they are at risk of going to Malaysia and going to the back of the queue -- that's what it means," she said.

In other words, those 800 who would have been transferred from Australia to Malaysia would not get preferential treatment over those refugees who were already there and had begun to apply for asylum in Australia.
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The Irrawaddy - China Hands KNU Leader over to Burma
By SAW YAN NAING Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Mahn Nyein Maung, a leading member of the Karen National Union (KNU) who once escaped from Burma's most notorious penal colony, is again in the hands of the Burmese authorities after being sent to Rangoon by Chinese officials, according to family members.

“The latest information we have is that our father was handed over to Burmese intelligence agents by officials in Kunming,” said his eldest son, who asked not to be identified by name.

The family said that Mahn Nyein Maung was arrested in the capital of China's Yunnan Province in July after being sent back from Bangkok, where he was denied entry by Thai immigration officials.

Mahn Nyein Maung had earlier traveled to Yunnan from Thailand, where he lived, to observe the armed conflict between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and government troops near the Sino-Burmese border.

Mahn Nyein Maung made the trip in his capacity as a central committee member of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), an alliance of ethnic armed groups, said Nai Hang Thar, the UNFC secretary.

Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese observer on the Sino-Burmese border, said he heard that Mahn Nyein Maung had been put on a passenger flight to Rangoon in late July.

However, KNU central committee member Saw Ah Toe said he could not confirm that Mahn Nyein Maung had been sent to Burma.

“If he has been sent back, there's no doubt that he is being punished very severely,” said Saw Ah Toe.

Mahn Nyein Maung was a former underground activist inside Burma. In 1960, he was arrested and sent to the Coco Islands, an infamous detention center for political prisoners located about 300 km off the Burmese mainland in the Indian Ocean.

Mahn Nyein Maung and two other political prisoners, Mahn Aung Kyi and Aung Ngwe, managed to escape from the island by floating across the Indian Ocean clutching driftwood. However, they were rearrested when they reached the Burmese mainland.

It was the only known escape from the prison, known as “Burma's Devils Island”.
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The Irrawaddy - Govt Officials Implicated in Car Smuggling Ring
Wednesday, August 31, 2011

RANGOON — A number of high-ranking Burmese government officials, including cabinet ministers and military generals, are involved in smuggling cars into Burma and illegally registering them in the country, according to sources within the government.

An official from Naypyidaw who spoke to The Irrawaddy on condition of anonymity said that the ministers and other officials receive bribes from smugglers and in some cases sign documents enabling licenses to be printed for illegal vehicles.

Minister of Finance and Revenue Hla Tun and Minister of Industry No. 2 Soe Thein are allegedly among those involved in these practices.

Government sources said that corruption within the Customs Department, which is overseen by the Ministry of Finance and Revenue, has worsened since Tun Thein, a close associate of Hla Tun, was appointed as its director-in-chief, although corruption was also rife under Tun Thein's predecessor, San Thaung, who now serves as the director of the Burmese Economic Bank.

The Ministry of Industry No. 2 has also been accused of playing a key role in facilitating the illegal import of foreign vehicles. According to a Rangoon-based businessman involved in Burma's vehicle manufacturing industry, the ministry issues certificates registering foreign cars as domestically produced, even though it does not have the authority to do this.

According to ministry sources, the ministry imposes a fine of US $13,000-20,000 for every Toyota Hi-Ace illegally imported into the country, although this is enforced only occasionally, as a cover for the more widespread practice of accepting bribes.

While Burma does have some vehicle factories—all owned by generals or their families—they don't have the capacity to produce international models.

The Ministry of Industry No. 2 officially registered 98,884 cars in 2010 and 9,577 so far this year.
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The Irrawaddy - 88 Leaders Warn Suu Kyi Against Trusting Govt.
By KO HTWE Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Imprisoned leaders of the 88 Generation Students group have pledged their continued support for pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi but warned she should treat her new friendly relationship with the Burmese government with caution.

The 88 Generation Students group leaders Ko Ko Gyi and Htay Kywe, now in their late 40s, are serving 65-year sentences in different prisons for their involvement in peaceful anti-government protests in 2007.

The message from Htay Kywe was relayed by his brother-in-law Phyo Min Thein, who spoke to The Irrawaddy on Wednesday after a two-day family visit to remote Buthitaung Prison in Arakan State.

“[Htay Kywe] said Aung San Suu Kyi is a leader who can decide rightly for herself and provide leadership to others, so he urged all of the democratic force to support her so she can carry out her actions smoothly,” said Phyo Min Thein.

Buthitaung Prison is notorious for its harsh treatment of political prisoners and its bitterly cold weather. Htay Kywe's health is currently suffering as a result of his imprisonment, added Phyo Min Thein.

Htay Kywe was first arrested in 1991 and incarcerated in Rangoon’s notorious Insein Prison for 15 years. He was transferred to Tharrawaddy Prison in 1995 and finished his jail term in July 2001. But he was continually detained by authorities under the Protection of the State from Threat Act (10 A), which allows military authorities the right to detain suspects arbitrarily.

After his release, Htay Kywe co-founded the 88 Generation Students group along with Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Min Zeya and Pyone Cho. From 2005 to 2007, the group conducted several non-violent campaigns, including visits to political prisoners’ homes and holding Buddhist ceremonies at Shwedagon Pagoda in Rangoon to commemorate prisoners of conscience.

Ko Ko Gyi, another leader of 88 Generation Students group, said the current dialogue is the first step for Suu Kyi to find a peaceful transition to democracy and achieve national reconciliation.

“One thing Suu Kyi should be cautious about is the other side misusing her benevolence,” said a source closed to Ko Ko Gyi.

Htay Kywe, Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Pyone Cho (aka Htay Win Aung), Mya Aye, Htay Kywe, Hla Myo Naung, Aung Thu, Nyan Lin and Aung Naing (aka Myo Aung Naing) were each sentenced on Nov. 11, 2007, at a court session in Maubin, southwest of Rangoon, to 65 years in prison for their roles in the anti-government uprising of 2007.

Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi were transferred to Kengtung and Mong Sat Prison in Shan State, northeast of Rangoon; Mya Aye was transferred to Loikaw Prison in Karenni State, eastern Burma; and Pyone Cho was transferred to Kawthaung Prison in Tenasserim Division in southern Burma.

Hla Myo Naung was transferred to Myitkyina Prison in Kachin State, 900 miles (1,440 km) north of Rangoon; Aung Thu was transferred to Putao Prison in Kachin State; and Aung Naing was transferred to Kalaymyo Prison in Sagaing Division, 680 miles (1,088 km) north of Rangoon.
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The Irrawaddy - UNFC Forms Peace Group for Govt. Talks
By LAWI WENG Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Leaders of an umbrella organization of ethnic parties, the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), formed a peace talk group last week in preparation for future negotiations with the Burmese government.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Wednesday, UNFC secretary Nai Hang Tha said, “There are eight representatives within the group which includes Mon, Shan, Karenni, Chin, Arakanese, Karen, Kachin and Pa-O people.

Nai Hang Tha explained that he will head the group with Colonel Lapai Hla, from the Kachin Independent Army (KIA), acting as deputy.

“We are prepared to talk about equal rights for ethnic people in the country. We will also talk about reforming the new constitution so that a genuine federal union will exist [in Burma],” he said.

“We will ask [the government] to stop their military offensives launched in ethnic areas and announce a nationwide ceasefire. If possible, we will ask them to have tripartite dialogue,” he added.

Leaders of the UNFC said that they want to hold peace talks with the government on the Burmese border or at a location within a neighboring country.

“It is best to talk within neighboring countries if those nations allow us to do so,” said Nai Hang Tha. Or we can talk at the border where there is security for us, like Kachin people have done in the past as they control their area.”

UNFC leaders decided to invite neutral persons who are well respected in the country—including pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi—to witness talks, and aim to sign an agreement on paper as evidence of their commitment.

The leaders do not want the government to offer peace talks on a group-by-group basis, as they do not believe this can solve problems in the country.

State-run newspaper The New Light of Myanmar reported on Aug. 18 that the government offered an “olive branch” to the armed groups, encouraging them to contact their respective state or division authorities as a first step toward meeting with a union government delegation.

“The government should not divide groups to have peace talks individually because our country's problems are not down to only one group. They need to talk with the UNFC as we represent all the ethnic groups,” said Nai Hang Tha.

The UNFC was formed in February at a meeting in northern Thailand attended by a dozen ethnic groups. These included the Kachin Independence Organization, Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party, Chin National Front, New Mon State Party, Shan State Progress Party, Pa-O National Liberation Organization, Palaung State Liberation Front, Arakan National Council, Lahu Democratic Union, Wa National Organization and Kachin National Organization.
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Protest to call for release of Burma VJ, other political prisoners
Wednesday, 31 August 2011 14:22 Mizzima News

Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – The Free Burma VJ Campaign plans a demonstration on September 9 outside the Burmese embassy in Bangkok to call for the release of imprisoned video journalist, Hla Hla Win.

The NGO plans to hand a letter to the embassy calling for the release of the Burmese video journalist or VJ, and the release of the 1,995 political prisoners currently held in Burma.

Two years ago, Hla Hla Win was arrested and sentenced to 27 years in jail for doing her job as a journalist, according to a press release issued by the NGO. She was sentenced to seven years under the Import/Export act for using an unregistered motorcycle and under interrogation admitted to sending video footage to the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) and was sentenced to a further 20 years under the Electronics Act.

Similar protests will be held on the same day in Paris, London and Geneva, with members of Info Birmanie, Amnesty International, Reporters Without Borders, the Fédération International des ligues des Droits de l’Homme and Burma Campaign UK in front of their countries’ respective Burmese embassies.

Hla Hla Win, age 27, and 17 other DVB VJs are currently in prison in Burma.

According to the press release, “A democracy doesn't keep its journalists behind bars and respects basic human rights: including those of freedom of expression, freedom of information and association. The ceaseless harassment on journalists by the Burmese authorities proves that democracy in Burma remains a distant prospect for those journalists in jail.”
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Mizzima News - Presidential adviser discusses amnesty for Burmese exiles
Wednesday, 31 August 2011 21:16 Tun Tun

(Interview) – Burmese President Thein Sein recently encouraged Burmese exiles to return home. One of his presidential advisers says Parliament will pass a bill to implement the offer. Mizzima correspondent Tun Tun asked Ko Ko Hlaing, a presidential adviser, how the amnesty offer will work. Ko Ko Hlaing explained that all exiles could return and no one would be punished except people who have committed criminal offenses, and he described other aspects of the bill to be introduced in Parliament.

Question: How will this amnesty offer for exiles work?

Answer: As far as I know, no one will be punished except people who committed “personal offences” against someone such as murder, robbery or physical assault and so on. Except for punishing people who committed crimes against someone, the government will not punish exiles. The details will be disclosed when the law is officially approved in Parliament. They are arranging to put forward that bill. You will know the details when the bill has been brought before Parliament. Then, they will debate and vote on the bill.

Q: So the only penalties will concern people who committed crimes against someone?

A: Yes. The reason is that the nation cannot forgive a person who harmed someone, because there is a person who has suffered. The nation cannot pardon those culprits. Otherwise, the other side will accuse the government of bias. For rebelling against the nation such as membership in an illegal association or joining rebels and so on, some criminal cases are unavoidable. But former amnesties forgave all of those kinds of people if they didn’t commit criminal crimes.

Even insurgents were forgiven. So, there is no reason not to forgive others.

Q: For example, how would the All Burma Students' Democratic Front and ethnic armed groups be treated?

A: If they lay down their arms, the government is ready to grant amnesty. If they want to return to the legal fold immediately, they will be accepted immediately. Regarding the killing of soldiers during fighting, fighting is an armed conflict. The army will shoot rebels. Rebels will attack the army. There are such cases in every country.

But, there is one exception. If someone killed villagers after alleging that they [villagers] gave information to the army….for instance, the case in Sinzwe Village, we cannot forgive those kinds of cases.

Q: Do you mean that they would be punished in accordance with the current laws?

A: If they committed crimes against villagers, those will be exceptional cases. Mutual shootings between armed groups are usual. Armed groups have the right to shot each other. They have the right to protect themselves. For villagers, they are not armed to protect themselves. In the past, “Red Flag Communist” led by Thakhin Soe [now deceased] killed all the villagers of Sinzwe Village.

Now, for instance, on some occasions, the SSA and some armed groups killed female teachers. In those cases, they will receive the punishment they deserve, and then they will be free.

Q: Does the government have a plan about how to reintroduce exiles back into the country?

A: I don’t know exactly because I’m neither a member of the government nor an MP. I think that the government will plan to resettle them in Burma and so on. The administrative bodies will do the necessary things after the amnesty, I think.

Q: In your opinion, how soon could the law to bring back exiles be passed and ready to implement?

A: Now parliament is beginning to work on this. Parliament will put up the bill. The bill will be debated and amended in one house first. Then if the house approves the bill, it will be submitted to the other house. If both houses approve the bill, it will be forwarded to the president. When the president signs the bill, it can be enforced as a law. I don’t know how long the process will take. That depends on the Parliament.

Q: Some people have criticized the offer and expressed distrust of the government. How will you overcome such doubts?

A: Nothing [no description] can be as transparent and strong as a law. If laws are passed and enforced, nothing can be better than that. Do you agree?”

Q: So, we have to wait and see the law.

A: Laws govern each country. We need to do everything in accordance with the law, so everyone, from the president to ordinary staff, must obey the laws. There is no better guarantee than enforcing the laws.

Q: Some observers have alleged that the government has made this offer because it wants to chair Asean in 2014. How do you respond to such charges?

A: Whether we can chair Asean or not, they [the exiles] are Burmese citizens. I will work for the sake of the people and the nation. We work together for everyone’s sake. Some people in foreign countries are criticizing the offer based on their own views. They can criticize in various ways. But our good intentions will be obvious later because of our actions.

If we invite exiles to return to Burma just to show off, they can criticize us for being fake. If our invitation is genuine, the people will recognize that and then believe the offer is real.
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Snails destroy more than 100 acres of paddy crops in Mon State
Wednesday, 31 August 2011 23:04 Kun Chan

Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – A large, invasive species of snail has destroyed rice crops around seven villages in Chaungzon Township in Mon State, according to local farmers.

Since July, the snails have attacked fields in the seaside villages of Kanyaw, Boenakkyi, Downyak, Kawmupon, Selpalar, Hinthakyun and Natmhaw.

Mon State Chief Minister U Ohn Myint visited Kawmupon village last week to inspect the villagers’ effort to combat the snail, according to the state-run newspaper New Light of Myanmar.

He told the farmers to prevent the outbreak of snails from spreading to other paddy fields, the newspaper said, and suggested that the farmers replace the spoiled rice crops with a second crop of new rice plants.

In Mon State, rainy season rice crops are grown from early June to late July, according to a retired township agricultural official.

Farmers said the snails lay a cluster of eggs on rice plants or grasses and their birth rate is very high, making it difficult for farmers to control the plague of snails.

“We have not seen these snails before. They appeared this year. They are different than the usual farm snails, and they are very big. The weight of a snail is about 0.4 kg,” a farmer in Downyak village told Mizzima.

An assistant professor of botany at Rangoon University said in the weekly The Voice Journal on August 29 that the snail was the “Golden Apple Snail,” and it was similar to regular Burmese farm snails.

A retired township agricultural official told Mizzima, “The snails are not a Burmese species. Burmese farm snails also eat duckweeds and rice plants, but they are not as dangerous as these snails. These snails really like rice plants.”
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DVB News - Russian gas giant eyeing Burma
By Joseph Allchin
Published: 31 August 2011

Officials from Russian state run gas company, Gazprom visited Burma’s capital Naypyidaw earlier this month, according to the International Oil Daily.

The company is interested in becoming involved in gas projects in Burma as it looks to expand its Asian presence.

Russia has the largest proven reserves of gas in the world and as result the company is the largest extractor of natural gas in the world as well as the largest Russian company.
Its revenues in 2010 alone were in the region of US$ 17.2 billion, which is equivalent to roughly a third of Burma’s total estimated GDP.

The officials who visited however were from Gazprom’s international up stream branch, Gazprom EP International, which is registered in the Netherlands, an EU member state which is party to EU sanctions on the country. The German company E.ON also has a small stake in Gazprom.

The Burmese government for their part are interested in the expertise that the company can offer in terms of equipment, storage facilities, pipelines and fior the company to conduct geological surveys.

The company is reportedly looking to diversify its market away from the sluggish EU economies, as China’s growing appetite for energy looks set to over take demand from the European block in 2030. China however is busy acquiring sources of gas in its neighbourhood in both central Asia and Burma.

The Burmese government has also been looking to acquire more domestic know how in the oil & gas sector. They have been insisting that Burmese companies form joint ventures with foreign companies in the on shore gas sector.

Investment in the gas & oil sector has remained buoyant, so much so that it has caused a massive appreciation of the Burmese kyat as it has increased in value by over 20% over the last year.
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DVB News - Parliament rejects reform of emergency act
By AHUNT PHONE MYAT
Published: 31 August 2011

A proposal in the People’s Parliament made by Thingangyun township’s representative Thein Nyunt to revoke the 1950 Emergency Provisions Act has been rejected by a vote in parliament yesterday.

Independent MP Thein Nyint submitted a proposal to the People’s Parliament to abolish the 1950 Emergency Provisions Act, that was adopted under the pretext of an on-going civil war at the time, along with criminal laws relating to it.

His proposal was discussed by four Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) representatives and the parliament voted on whether to accept it or not – the results showed there were 336 votes against, 8 in favour and 41 abstaining votes, said representative Pe Than of Myebon township in Arakan State.

“All parliament representatives who discussed about the proposal spoke out against it and the Union Minister Ko Ko insisted that it should be rejected,” said Pe Than.

When the parliament’s speaker asked for U Thein Nyunt’s opinion, he called to parliament to go for a vote ‘democratically’ so the parliament conducting a voting by headcount.

“All 336 representatives from the military and the USDP stood against the proposal,” said Pe Than.

Thein Nyunt said he; “happily accepted the loss.”

He said he understood the rejection of his proposal showed that the situation with the civil war back in 1950 is still continuing, citing discussions by two USDP representatives from Karen State’s Myawaddy and Kachin State.

“According to their discussion, the country is not yet at peace – there are still external and internal destructive elements – so it is necessary to have the [emergency act] under security concerns,” said Thein Nyunt.

The parliament is overwhelmingly dominated by the military either serving or retired, with 25% of seats reserved automatically for the military and alleged widespread vote rigging in favour of the military proxy party the USDP.

The 1950 Emergency Provisions Act and relating criminal laws were passed by a parliament while the country was wracked by civil war as communists and Karen secessionists fought with the Burmese state. Critics allege that it is widely used by the Burmese government to persecute political activists and journalists.

Article 5 of the law makes it illegal to; “spread false news” or to “to rally people” or “to make the public lose trust in the State’s economy.”
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