BURMA RELATED NEWS AUGUST 20, 2012.

Myanmar government ends direct media censorship
By YADANA HTUN | Associated Press – 7 hrs ago

YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — Myanmar abolished direct censorship of the media Monday in the most dramatic move yet toward allowing freedom of expression in the long-repressed nation. But related laws and practices that may lead to self-censorship raise doubt about how much will change.

Under the new rules, journalists will no longer have to submit their work to state censors before publication as they for almost half a century. However, the same harsh laws that have allowed Myanmar's rulers to jail, blacklist and control the media in the name of protecting national security remain unchanged and on the books.

For decades, this Southeast Asian nation's reporters had been regarded as among the most restricted in the world, subjected to routine state surveillance, phone taps and censorship so intense that independent papers could not publish on a daily basis. President Thein Sein's reformist government has significantly relaxed media controls over the last year, though, allowing reporters to print material that would have been unthinkable during the era of absolute military rule — like photographs of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Information Ministry, which has long controlled what can be printed, made the announcement on its website Monday. The head of the ministry's Press Scrutiny and Registration Department, Tint Swe, also conveyed the news to a group of editors in the country's main city Yangon. The move had been expected for months but was repeatedly delayed as the government struggles to draft a new media law to overhaul the industry here.

In Washington, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland welcomed the announcement but urged Myanmar to abolish the censor board entirely.

Tint Swe previously said the censor board itself would be abolished when censorship ends. But Monday's announcement indicated the board will stay and retain the powers it has always had to suspend publications or revoking publishing licenses if they deem publishing rules are violated.

Nyein Nyein Naing, an editor from the Seven Day News Journal who attended Monday's meeting, said journalists will still have to submit their articles to the censor board. But now, she said, they will be required to do so after publication, apparently to allow the government to determine whether any publishing laws are violated.

Those laws, in place since a military coup in 1962, include edicts prohibiting journalists from writing articles that could threaten peace and stability, oppose the constitution or insult ethnic groups. Critics say some laws are open to interpretation and give the government enormous power to go after its critics. They have been used repeatedly in recent years to jail members of the press.

Nyein Nyein Naing welcomed the government announcement, as did other journalists in Myanmar. But she added: "We have to be very cautious as (the state censor board) will keep monitoring us."

It was not immediately clear to what degree continued government scrutiny could lead to self-censorship. Some topics remain highly sensitive, like corruption and alleged abuses committed by army officers during the previous ruling junta. Overzealous authorities could use the threat of prosecution to prevent articles from being published or exact harsh punishments for material they don't like.

Late last month, the censor board wielded some of that power by ordering the suspension of two weekly magazines — The Voice Weekly and Envoy — for speculating on a still-anticipated Cabinet reshuffle. Those punishments have since been lifted, and the two magazines are due to begin publishing again on Aug. 18.

Shawn Crispin, the Committee to Protect Journalist's Southeast Asia representative in Bangkok, said that "if the government is sincere in ending pre-publication censorship, it would represent a significant step forward for press freedom in Burma." Myanmar is also called Burma.

However, if press laws are not reformed as well, "then all of these promises can be easily rolled back if they feel a free press threatens government security," Crispin said.

Since last year, when the nation's long-entrenched military junta ceded power to a nominally civilian administration dominated by retired army officers, censorship has ended on subjects such as health, entertainment, fashion and sports. Media outlets publishing such topics — deemed less sensitive — were allowed to publish without submitting their work to state censors beforehand.

Monday's announcement means the rest — more than 140 newspapers and magazines focused on things like politics and religion — will have the same freedoms.

Tint Swe said, however, that independent papers were not yet allowed to publish on a daily basis, despite the change. But he added: "That is coming soon."
****************************************************
Myanmar government abolishes direct media censorship
By Aung Hla Tun | Reuters – 5 hrs ago

YANGON (Reuters) - Myanmar abolished direct media censorship on Monday, the latest dramatic reform by its quasi-civilian regime, but journalists face other formidable restrictions including a ban on private daily newspapers and a pervasive culture of self-censorship.

Under the new rules, journalists no longer have to submit reports to state censors before publication, ending a practice strictly enforced during nearly half a century of military rule that ended in March last year.

"This is a step in the right direction and a good approach, but questions of press freedom will remain," said Aung Thu Nyein, a senior associate at the Vahu Development Institute, a Thailand-based think tank.

"We can expect the government to still try to assert some control, probably using national security to keep the media in check," he added.

Previously, every song, book, cartoon, news report and planned piece of art required approval by teams of censors rooting out political messages and criticisms of one of Asia's most repressive governments.

Changes have gathered steam since June last year when the Ministry of Information decided to allow about half of Myanmar's privately run weekly journals and monthly magazines to publish without submitting page proofs to a censorship board in advance.

On Monday, restrictions were lifted on the remaining 80 political and six religious journals, said Tint Swe, head of the press censorship board at the Ministry of Information.

Over the past year, Myanmar, also known as Burma, has introduced the most sweeping reforms in the former British colony since a 1962 military coup. A semi-civilian government, stacked with former generals, has allowed elections, eased rules on protests and freed dissidents among other changes.

Newspapers have since been testing the boundaries, often putting opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on front pages and giving coverage to government critics. Editors say this was unthinkable before the middle of last year.

The United States, which has quickly improved ties with Myanmar as the reforms gather pace, said the end of direct censorship was another positive step.

"That said, the Censorship Board itself has not been eradicated, which obviously is a step that we would like to see the government take," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told a news briefing.

REMAINING RESTRICTIONS

But while the authorities can no longer count on the same strictly controlled media that was ranked 169th of 179 nations last year in a global press freedom index by anti-censorship group Reporters Without Borders, significant restrictions remain.

Privately run daily newspapers are still not permitted, leaving a monopoly to state-run papers filled with propaganda. It was only last year that they dropped back-page banners attacking Western media for "sowing hatred".

Asked about the chance of ending a ban on private dailies, Tint Swe said: "We can say it has become closer than before. It could happen after enacting the necessary media law."

Journalists also said they still feared their reports could fall foul of various laws on the statute book, especially when covering issues deemed sensitive to national security.

In June, for instance, Reporters without Borders criticized a threat by Yangon chief minister Myint Swe to prosecute news media covering sectarian violence in the country's western Rakhine state, saying it highlighted "the fragility of recent improvements in media freedom".

"There will be more responsibilities on the editors since there are some existing laws under which action can be taken against journalists for their writing," said Wai Phyo, chief editor of the Weekly Eleven journal.

Remaining Orwellian laws include the Electronic Transaction Law, enacted in April 2004. It says "whoever receives or sends or distributes any information relating to secrets of the security of the state" can face up to 15 years in prison.

The definition of state secrets has been applied loosely in the past. At one point, it included any reference to the amount of money in circulation in Myanmar. Prominent activists such as Buddhist monk Shin Gambira were jailed under that law during a 2007 crackdown on monk-led protests.

With that law in place, media will still be choosing their words carefully, likely adopting the kind of self-censorship in place in other parts of Southeast Asia. In Singapore, for instance, media is usually careful to avoid displeasing the government and not falling afoul of strict libel laws.

Zaw Htike, a senior reporter and secretary of the Myanmar Journalists Network, which has more than 200 members, had a similar view, and added that journalists would now have to take more responsibility for what they wrote.

"I believe we also need to promote a code of ethics among journalists," he said.
****************************************************
US welcomes Myanmar end to censorship
AFP – 3 hrs ago

The United States on Monday welcomed Myanmar's announcement that it has abolished pre-publication censorship, but called on the nation to go further by abolishing its censor board.

"We welcome the announcement of the Burmese government that journalists are no longer going to need to pre-submit their articles to the ministry of information censor board," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters, using Myanmar's previous name of Burma.

"That's positive. That said, the censor board itself has not been eradicated, which is obviously a step that we would like to see the Burmese government take because they continue to monitor the press," she said.

Myanmar for decades had some of the world's most tightly controlled media, with officials checking everything from newspapers to song lyrics before release, but it has eased restrictions since it launched reforms last year.

Political and religious journals -- the last areas that required pre-publication checks -- were allowed to go to press without previous approval starting on Monday.

President Barack Obama's administration has put a priority on reaching out to Myanmar to encourage reforms. Last month, the United States suspended restrictions on companies investing in the former pariah nation.

Media rights groups also called on Myanmar to abolish the censorship board formally.

Paris-based Reporters Without Borders said that if the decision truly results in the end of pre-publication censorship, "it will mark an historic break with half a century of strict government control of print media content."

But the group in a statement voiced reservations, saying the order should apply to all forms of media and voicing concern that "other, inappropriate measures will be adopted as an alternative form of post-publication censorship."

An information ministry official told AFP that film censorship remained in place and that television journalists will "self censor" by asking for instructions about sensitive news.

The Committee to Protect Journalists, a New York-based advocacy group, also called on Myanmar to abolish its censorship board and revise its laws, saying that otherwise its announcement on Monday "is a half-measure at best."

"Until the Burmese government undertakes thorough reform, journalists are still at risk of censure and the free flow of information cannot be guaranteed," Shawn Crispin, the group's senior Southeast Asia representative, said in a statement.
****************************************************
Myanmar could be mid income nation by 2030: ADB
AFP – 14 hrs ago

Strong economic growth could lift Myanmar to the rank of middle income nation by 2030 if the formerly army-ruled country overcomes a host of reform challenges, the Asian Development Bank said Monday.

Myanmar's gross domestic product (GDP) has the potential to expand at an annual pace of 7.0-8.0 percent, while per capita income could triple over the next 18 years, the Manila-based multilateral lender said.

It called for greater investment in infrastructure, education, health and social services to put the country on a sustainable recovery path.

ADB Vice President Stephen Groff said there was "really quite strong potential for growth" in Myanmar.

In order to realise its potential, there needs to be a continuous strong commitment to reform," he added.

Decades of economic mismanagement under military rule saw Myanmar fall far behind its neighbours in terms of living standards.

Myanmar is currently one of just a handful of countries in Asia still considered a low-income nation, along with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal.

The World Bank classifies low-income countries as those with gross national income per person of $1,025 or less.

But in the future Myanmar could match economic growth enjoyed by fast-growing neighbours in the region, Groff said.

"This growth needs to be inclusive, needs to reach everybody from the middle class to the very poor," he added.

The ADB and the World Bank both recently opened offices in the impoverished country, which is emerging from decades of military rule under a new reformist government.
****************************************************
The Atlantic Wire - Myanmar's Journalists Can Now Censor Their Own Stories
By Dashiell Bennett | The Atlantic Wire – 7 hrs ago

The government of Myanmar is ending a 50-year practice of requiring journalists to submit all their stories to a censor board before publication, but there's a catch, of course. According to The Associated Press' Yadana Htun, the censor board still exists and will continue to monitor publications. It can also still suspend licenses and punish those who violate their laws. The difference is that now they'll be reviewing articles after they've already been published, putting the onus of self-censorship on the journalists themselves.

Even so, it's a major step forward for a country that has had essentially zero press freedom since a military takeover in 1962. Under those strict rules, all media — books, music, cartoons, art — had to pass by a government censor board lest they "threaten peace and stability." Since its first general election in 2010, however, the government has very slowly and cautiously relaxed some of its rules, even allowing opposition leader (and Nobel Peace Prize winner) Aung San Suu Kyi to leave her house arrest and the country to promote democracy abroad.

All great reforms don't happen overnight, however. Just last month, the government censors banned two weekly news magazines from publishing altogether, but the ban was lifted over the weekend and they were allowed resume publishing. Freedom press thing takes a little getting used to.
****************************************************
Myanmar to investigate violence in Rakhine
Published: Aug. 20, 2012 at 1:14 PM

UNITED NATIONS, Aug. 20 (UPI) -- The United Nations is ready to assist a 27-member panel in Myanmar tasked with investigating religious violence in Rakhine state, the secretary-general said.

The government in Myanmar established a 27-member coalition of national leaders to probe violence in Rakhine, near the border with Bangladesh.

Violence erupted along Myanmar's coastal area in June after the alleged rape and killing of a Buddhist woman. Buddhists retaliated by attacking Muslims. The United Nations estimates at least 78 people were killed during the clashes.

A statement attributed to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the world body was ready to assist with what he said would be a probe "integral to any reconciliation process" in the country.

Myanmar received praise from the international community for taking steps toward democracy. General elections were held in 2010, though concerns were expressed over human rights and national security in the country.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation had asked the U.N. Security Council to look into the government's handling of clashes in Rakhine.

A U.N. report released Thursday put the number of people displaced by the fighting in Rahkine at more than 68,500.

The government also announced Monday it was easing up on restrictions placed on journalists, who previously had to submit their reports to censors.
****************************************************
The Nation - ADB forecasts rapid growth for Myanmar; incomes to triple by 2030
Wichit Chaitrong, August 20, 2012 2:52 pm

Myanmar is expected to be a middle-income nation by 2030 if the country remains committed to ongoing reforms, according to Asian Development Bank .

Myanmar could follow Asia's fast growing economies and expand at 7 to 8 per cent a year, to become a middle income nation, the ADB said in a report released today in Bangkok. Its per capita income is set to triple by 2030, if the nation can surmount substantial development challenges by further implementing acrosstheboard reforms

Myanmar's strategic location, rich natural resources and abundant labour forces leave it perfectly positioned to prosper from Asia's dynamic economic growth, added Stephen Groff, ADB's vice president for East Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

"Myanmar could be Asia's next rising star. But for this to happen, there needs to be a firm and lasting commitment to reform," Groff said at the press conference.

ADB's economists have warned that there are multiple constraints and risks involved, when the country liberalises its economy, for one, its greater volatility in capital flows, said CynYoung Park, assistant chief economist. She added that significant risks include impact of climate change, pollution from economic activities and tension from internal conflicts.
****************************************************
The Nation - Myanmar economy forecast to grow average of 7-8 per cent
August 20, 2012 3:11 pm

Myanmar is poised to become Asia's next "rising star" with a decade of average annual economic growth of 7 to 8 per cent and a tripling of per-capita income by 2030, the Asian Development Bank said Monday.

Myanmar’s gross domestic product (GDP) was expected to grow 6 per cent this year and 6.3 per cent in 2013, the bank said.

"Inflation has been brought down to a single digit, and fiscal deficits are being kept at 4 per cent to 6 per cent of GDP," an ADB report said.

The bank opened an office in Yangon this month. It painted a rosy picture of economic prospects after five decades of military rule and isolation, as long as the government is committed to political and economic reforms it launched last year under President Thein Sein.
****************************************************
Calcutta News.Net - Myanmar moves a step closer to free media but restrictions remain.
Monday 20th August, 2012

YANGON - Myanmar announced Monday that it has ended direct media censorship in what is being described as a "positive step to a free press" and one of the most dramatic steps towards democratic reforms in the quasi-civilian ruled state.

But a slew of restriction on free expression remains in place even as the announcement means that journalists will no longer have to submit their work to state censors before publication as they did for almost half a century.

Earlier, every song, book, cartoon, news report and any piece of art required approval by teams of censors who would root out political messages and criticisms of one military government.

The announcement was made by Tint Swe, the deputy director general of the Press Scrutiny and Registry Division of the Ministry of Information to a meeting of editors in Yangon.

In June last year, the government allowed about half of Myanmar's privately run weekly journals and monthly magazines to publish without submitting page proofs to a censorship board in advance.

The restrictions were lifted on the remaining 80 political and six religious journals, said Tint Swe.

Nyein Nyein Naing, executive editor of the Myanmar newspaper 7 Day News, welcomed the move as a "positive step to a free press". But, he said, it is far from achieving the ultimate goal of absolute freedom of press.

"The Censorship and Press Scrutiny Board office still exists and will monitor whether we violate the law or other rules and regulations of the PSB," he said.

"The end of censorship doesn't mean we have freedom of press. Press freedom still has a long way to go."

The editor noted that drafting of the new press law would remain an incomplete task till local journalists were not involved in this process.

The government circulated a document that stipulated that stories critical of the state or the government should not be published which also include the article adversely affecting relations with other countries.

It also barred media organisatons from going ahead with new articles about corruption, manufacturing and dealing in illegal narcotic drugs, forced labor and child soldiers "without having source reliability".

Articles mentioning parts of the body that are "not appropriate to reveal according to Myanmar culture" are also banned.

This means that despite partially lifting curbs, some harsh laws that have allowed Myanmar's rulers to jail, blacklist and control media persons in the name of protecting national security remain unchanged.
****************************************************
Manila Bulletin - North Korea, Myanmar Attracting investors
A Global View
By DR. BETH DAY ROMULO
August 20, 2012, 4:55pm

THE word is out that Myanmar is ready to open its doors to the outside world and encourage foreign investment. This isolated country of 60 million people is said to be putting in reforms designed to attract foreign investors, including allowing the private sector to participate in the economy for the first time since a military coup took power in 1962. The list of needed reforms is challenging: Infrastructure is crumbling. The financial and legal systems are undeveloped. Power supplies are erratic. And the country's telecommunications system is outdated.

But Myanmar's president, former General Thein Sein, has a popular mandate to make needed changes and some reforms have already been implemented. Most important was tackling the restrictive foreign investment law which has now been amended to set up 100% owned companies. Some political reforms are also in place since free elections were held in 2010, which shifted the country to a more democratic form of government.

In response to these changes in Myanmar, the United States and the European Union have eased sanctions and the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are re-starting operations in Myanmar. Before sanctions were relaxed, what little investment came into the country came from China, Thailand, and South Korea, most of which was in the oil, gas, and mining sectors. Outside investment is now coming in from other countries including the Philippines. Philex Mining, Splash Manufacturing, and San Miguel Brewery will all invest in Myanmar.

In North Korea, the new young leader, Kim Jon-un, who took power on his father's death six months ago, is sending out tantalizing signals about himself and his secretive nation. He allowed pictures of himself with an attractive young woman – who, after much speculation, turned out to be his wife of three years, the former opera singer, Ri Soi-ju. Since taking office, the young Kim has consolidated his power by dismissing the most powerful head of the military and replacing him with a veritable unknown. This is seen by analysts as Kim's way of reining in the powerful military, and signalling to the outside world that he is ready to promote peaceful diplomatic and trade relations with the outside world. The young smiling Kim (neither his grandfather nor his father ever smiled in photos) is clearly charting a more open course. In his first public speech since assuming office, he pledged to build a prosperous country and told a visiting Chinese delegation that his goal was to "develop the economy and improve people's livelihoods."

Although North Korea sent one of the smallest national delegations to the London Olympics, they won four gold medals and one bronze.
****************************************************
IRIN - MYANMAR: Rebels pledge no more child soldiers

CHIANG MAI, 20 August 2012 (IRIN) - Two ethnic groups in Myanmar recently became the first rebel fighters to sign a “deed commitment” with Swiss-based rights group Geneva Call, pledging to eliminate underage soldiers and protect children in armed conflict.

As signatories the Karenni National Progressive Party/Karenni Army (KNPP/KA) and the New Mon State Party/Mon National Liberation Army (NMSP/MNLA) must ensure that children aged under 18 are not recruited into or used by their armed forces. They are also required to meet obligations related to the well-being and rights of children affected by armed conflict, such as education and assistance for children in areas under their control.

Signatories must ensure that children aged under 18 are not recruited into or used by their armed forces, and are also required to meet obligations related to the well-being and rights of children affected by armed conflict, such as education and assistance for children in areas under their control.

“Our policy is to respect international humanitarian law in a military operation,” New Mon State Party spokesman Hong Sa told IRIN. “We fully welcome international monitoring.” In 1995 the Mon party signed a cease-fire agreement with Myanmar’s military government but tension remains after the Mon refused to lay down their arms in 2010 to join the government’s Border Guard Force.

“The action that they took by signing on to the document is the right way to go and we want to encourage that other non-state groups do the same,” said Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's (HRW) Asia division.

“I think it's significant, because it points in the right direction and re-emphasizes the commitment by some of the ethnic groups that, in fact, recognize that this is a problem that needs to be addressed,” Robertson noted.

In 2011 HRW documented the continued recruitment and use of child soldiers by all parties to Myanmar’s conflicts, in violation of international law.

Next steps

Observers are waiting to see if larger ethnic groups like the Karen, the Wa and the Kachin follow the example of the Karenni and the Mon.

“Regarding child soldiers, we have already signed deeds of commitment in 2007 with UN agencies and we no longer have any child soldiers among our troops,” said Karen National Union vice-president David Thakrabaw.

The Karen elder - who was a soldier at the age of 14, when the Karen conflict began in 1949 - commended Geneva Call’s initiative, but is sceptical about the military’s recent pledge to stop recruiting and using child soldiers. “We are interested in this process [of pledging not have children in the army] because the government side is still using child soldiers.”

Child soldiers refers not only to those who take up arms, but also children under 18 years who are a part of an armed force in any capacity, including cook, porter or messenger.

In June a group of UN agencies, headed by the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), signed a joint plan with Myanmar’s Defence Ministry that set a timetable and actions needed to release and reintegrate children associated with government forces, as well as prevent any further recruitment.

“I would hope that the Tatmadaw [Myanmar Armed Forces] will recognize that there can be a mutual immobilization of child soldiers on both sides of these armed conflicts,” Robertson said.
****************************************************
August 20, 2012, 2:11 PM SGT
Wall Street Journal (blog) - Myanmar’s Growing, but Has a Long Way to Go
By Patrick Barta, UPDATED AT 7 P.M.

YANGON–Myanmar may be poised for years of explosive growth. If so, it has a long way to go before it comes close to catching up with its neighbors.

That tough reality is one of the themes that emerges in the latest Myanmar report by the Asian Development Bank, released Monday, which provides one of the most comprehensive pictures of the Myanmar economy in years.

The report, “Myanmar in Transition: Opportunities and Challenges,” predicts that Myanmar’s economy will grow by about 6.0% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013 on the back of commodity exports and a pick-up in foreign investment – about as much as other fast-growing regional economies such as Indonesia. It also suggests that Myanmar could grow at 7%-8% per year for a decade or more, replicating the success of other Asian economies, if the government continues to push more reforms after giving residents more freedoms and floating the country’s currency over the past year.

But the depths to which Myanmar’s economy sunk during its years of military rule from 1962 to 2011 mean it could take years if not decades for it to start catching up to many of its regional peers.

Consider some of these factoids from the ADB report.

Only about 26% of Myanmar’s population had access to electricity in 2011, versus 100% in Malaysia and roughly 90% or more in the Philippines and Vietnam.

Only 1.26 people out of every 100 in Myanmar have fixed telephone lines, versus roughly 16 in Indonesia, while only 0.03 out of 100 have broadband Internet subscriptions, compared to about eight in Malaysia.

Roughly 30% of Myanmar doesn’t have access to safe water.

The list goes on. Myanmar has 40 kilometers of roads for every 1,000 square kilometers; Vietnam has 480. Myanmar has 18 vehicles per 1,000 people, while Thailand has 370.

Myanmar’s economy in some ways has changed little since the 1960s or otherwise fallen behind as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam zoomed ahead. Agriculture accounted for 35% of Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 1965; in 2010, it was 36%. Its per capita income in 1960 was about $670, more than three times that of Indonesia and more than twice that of Thailand. By 2010 it had the lowest GDP per capita in Southeast Asia, at about $1,300 on a purchasing power parity basis.

There are some areas where Myanmar has made notable progress, the ADB said. Its infant and maternal mortality rates have dropped considerably since 1990, though they remain high, and adult literacy is now well above 90%. Rice yields have increased steadily despite a lack of irrigation and other infrastructure. Overall growth in recent years has helped boost Myanmar’s foreign currency reserves to help buttress the country against economic shocks, and policy makers have helped bring inflation to manageable levels.

But the ADB noted that many experts believe Myanmar’s official economic data may have exaggerated the growth that occurred in recent years. Myanmar reported an average of 12% annual growth from 2000 to 2010, but such figures “have been deemed overstated and rather unreliable” given the country’s poor statistical capacity, the ADB said. It cited International Monetary Fund figures that estimate growth averaged just 4.6% from 2002 to 2010.

Other data that tend to correlate with GDP growth was also far weaker than official GDP figures would suggest. Cement sales, for instance, only grew 1.8% per year from 2004 to 2009.

Ko Ko Hlaing, an adviser to Myanmar President Thein Sein, said in an emailed response to questions that it “may be true” that GDP figures from 2002 to 2010 were not reliable because the country’s currency had many values at the time, complicating calculations, and some regional authorities may have exaggerated growth to please superiors. He said it’s possible the actual rate of growth was somewhere between the IMF estimates and Myanmar’s calculations, “but one can never find the exact point.”

Part of Myanmar’s problem, no doubt, is that it has been subject to tough Western sanctions that prevented Western firms from buying Myanmar products or investing there, though economists believe policy mistakes and over-reliance on inefficient state enterprises also played a major role in the weak economy. Many experts believe one of the reasons Myanmar’s government is finally changing after years of military rule is that its leaders are disappointed in the country’s poor performance compared with other Asian countries, and want to do something about it.

Either way, Myanmar remains heavily dependent on just a few industries, with more than two-thirds of its exports coming from three products – natural gas, logs and legumes, the ADB said.

The country also faces major risks going forward, despite all the recent excitement over reforms there. As Western governments lift sanctions and more investors charge in, the country could run into an assortment of challenges that commonly bedevil frontier economies, including inflation, exchange-rate instability, hot money flows, and credit bubbles. Those risks are particularly acute in Myanmar due to its relatively under-developed regulatory environment and immature financial sector, with poor tax collection, an under-developed bond market, and widening fiscal deficits.

The good news, ADB said, is that Myanmar is taking some important steps to address some of its problems. After years of miserly spending on health and education – it has been the only developing Asian country that spends more on defense than education and health combined – it is boosting health care and schools spending significantly, to 7.5% of government expenditure in fiscal year 2012-13, from 5.4% a year earlier. The budget for education is more than doubling in nominal terms in fiscal year 2012-13.

Having the ADB back in Myanmar may also help. The ADB, along with the World Bank, recently opened an office in Myanmar after suspending lending to the country years ago after Myanmar became an international pariah because of allegations of human-rights violations. The changing environment in Myanmar means multilateral institutions can work there again, though ADB officials stress Myanmar still needs to make good on $504 million of arrears to the bank before more money can flow.

An important question is whether Myanmar’s government will institute the kinds of financial-sector and other reforms needed to ensure it can continue to afford its spending, including boosting its tax haul and ensuring the country’s central bank has enough independence to properly manage the economy. Growth may indeed take off in Asia’s newest frontier market, but it’ll take a while to see whether its leaders have the skill to manage it.

And here’s one other final, sobering statistic: If Myanmar’s economy does manage to grow 7%-8% per year for a long stretch, it might still only hit GDP per capita of $2,000–$3,000 by 2030. To many economists, this is good news, since it would put Myanmar safely into the ranks of middle-income countries, ADB said. But it’s still a far cry from its peers. Malaysia’s GDP per capita in 2010 on a purchasing power parity basis was nearly $15,000.
****************************************************
Last updated: August 19, 2012 11:54 pm
The Financial Times - Myanmar starts flights between big cities
By Gwen Robinson in Bangkok

An air shuttle service is to provide the first daily flights between Myanmar’s former capital, Yangon, and the burgeoning new capital of Naypyidaw, ending the 12-hour return trip over bumpy roads, as the country takes another step towards opening up to the global economy.

The service will “revolutionise” life, according to one Yangon-based executive, for government officials, foreign diplomats, business executives and Aung San Suu Kyi, the opposition leader, who regularly make the 660km round trip.

The operator, First Myanmar Investment, is set to announce the service this week, offering four flights a day from September 9. Up to now, the only alternative to travelling by road has been an erratic, occasional air service that is often cancelled at the last minute.

Although the service will immediately benefit VIP visitors to Naypyidaw, the government and private sector see it as a critical addition as Myanmar prepares to host the Southeast Asian Games and other gatherings such as the World Economic Forum next year, and to chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2014.

Serge Pun, one of Myanmar’s most influential businessmen and chairman of First Myanmar Investment, said he decided to lease the aircraft and start the service because of the time he was spending on the road journey. “I am not in the airline business but I always wanted to do this. I hate that 11-hour journey – and clearly, it is something the market needs.”

Naypyidaw, built in relative secrecy on a sparsely populated site in central Myanmar under the former military regime in the early 2000s, has expanded rapidly in size and importance since it opened in 2006. It has grown from a skeleton population of about 300,000 bureaucrats, military personnel and villagers to almost a million, and visitors have increased from a handful to several thousand a week.

The city hosts the country’s sprawling, combined houses of parliament, its ministries, military headquarters, some branches of foreign offices including embassies, and most recently the Asian Development Bank, which opened its Naypyidaw office this month.

As well as all the infrastructure for the SEA Games, more than 20 hotels are being built or have just opened, and many more will come, according to tourism officials. Yangon runs frequent flights to tourist destinations such as Mandalay, but no operator has set up regular flights to Naypyidaw because of a lack of capacity, the consultant Vriens & Partners noted in a recent report on Myanmar’s investment opportunities.

All that is now changing, particularly after western governments eased sanctions this year, noted Vriens. “Sanctions prohibited airlines from properly maintaining and upgrading aircraft… Flights are infrequent to many destinations but schedules are growing to meet new demand from both tourists and local citizens.”

At present, budget travellers to and from Naypyidaw can take coach services to Yangon for Kt13,000, or about $15. But for VIPs, both foreign and domestic, cars are the only option, and many make the trip four or even five times a week. One government adviser, who lives in Yangon but is frequently in Naypyidaw, described it as the “most unproductive, costly use of time and energy”. As Myanmar lacks 3G networks, “you can’t even sit in a car or bus and do your emails”, he said.

The new service, under the name FMI Air Charter, offers two aircraft, a 44-seat twin turboprop ATR 42 and a 16-seat Beechcraft, that will ply the route in 50 minutes. Although the flights will cost $160, nearly three times the amount charged for the local airline’s occasional flights, Mr Pun says it is a small price to pay. “I am very optimistic, I think everyone who goes to Naypyidaw on business – or vice versa – needs this.”
****************************************************
NDTV - India to raise issue of morphed online images in North-East scare with Pak
Reported by Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Edited by Abhinav Bhatt | Updated: August 19, 2012 12:30 IST

Bangalore: Morphed images circulated online that fuelled panic and fear among people from the North-East originated in Pakistan, Home Secretary RK Singh said on Saturday evening. The government is expected to raise the issue with Pakistan soon.

"We have got a hold on the wrong messages, false images... Photos of people who had died in cyclones etc. were circulated as victims of violence in Myanmar and Bodoland... We want people to know that bulk of this was done from Pakistan. We will raise this issue with Pakistan. I am certain they will decline it but our technical team is certain," he said, while addressing a press conference in New Delhi.

"A total of 76 websites were identified where morphed images were uploaded and bulk of these were uploaded in Pakistan," Mr Singh told PTI. "He said these websites have been blocked.

Seven people have been identified out of which three have been arrested for spreading rumours that spread quickly through the north-eastern communities of cities like Hyderabad and Bangalore, the Home Secretary added.

Starting Wednesday, the SMS-es threatening students and professionals from the North-East convinced thousands to board special trains from Bangalore and Pune, both cosmopolitan cities, to Guwahati.

The Centre, on Friday, banned bulk SMs-es and MMS-es, so the same text message or video cannot be sent by phone to more than five recipients.

The governments of Karnataka, Assam and the Centre have been urging people not to be swayed by rumours or online videos that are inflammatory. The government has ordered websites and social networks to identify incendiary posts and take them down.

The text messages and online videos, designed to provoke tension and often urging violence, link themselves to recent violence in Myanmar and Assam, where 80 people have died in ethnic violence in the last month.

In Assam, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is trying his best to convince those returning to the state from Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune that they should go back to the cities they work in as soon as possible.

"I am telling everyone who is coming back to return. The government of Karnataka has assured full protection. I want all of them to go back as soon as possible. We will arrange for special trains from here to southern states whenever they want," he said.

But this may offer little assurance to the thousands of North-East citizens who arrived in Guwahati this morning after a long journey from cities like Hyderabad and Bangalore.

"I was in Bangalore for nine months. I won't go back, even if I don't get any work in Assam," says Albert, one of the boys. "We have the right to stay anywhere in the country. What is happening is not right," says another.

Most of the boys who've returned are from remote parts of Assam - Lakhimpur, Majuli, Sibsagar. For many, the lack of employment opportunities in their home state means staying back is not an option. "When it calms down, we will have to go back. Don't know how long we will stay here because we have to think of the future," says Abhijit.
****************************************************